Yield curve inversion and Morgan Stanley prediction

S&P 500SP

Description

⋅ Nov 6, 2018 2:11 PM

Morgan Stanley predicted end of economic cycle in 2021. morganstanley.com/im/en-us/individual-investor/insights/macro-insights/when-will-the-cycle-end.html?cid=232071715:429615759:0

And it looks like a yield curve inversion will occur in 2019 or 2020. fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?id=T10Y3M

I combined the above ideas and drew a green line staying in the current bullish trend channel. I drew a red line showing a delayed bearish reaction after a yield curve inversion. Recessions usually follow 3-22 months after a yield curve inversion. The red line shows a drop to a support line by 2021 and then a rally in anticipation of a new economic cycle.

Comment

⋅ Nov 6, 2018 2:43 PM

This app makes a ten year forecast of S&P 500. It predicts a rise to 3200 in 2019 and then sideways market (between 3000 and 3400) until year 2028. play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.stocktrendadvanced

If the app's forecast came true, it would defy expectations of a bubble followed by a crash. However, the anticipated actions of the Federal Reserve actually could resist the bubble and resist the crash. So, it is possible to have a sideways market for a decade.

Trend Analysis Technical Indicators SPX (S&P 500 Index)yiled curve inversion morgan stanley

Comments

bryonss

⋅ Jun 15, 2019 1:14 PM

This looks like the best prediction chart that I have ever done.

bryonss

⋅ Dec 24, 2018 4:24 PM

Anticipation of yield curve inversion seems to have triggered early crash. Now I expect S&P500 to drop to 2177 and then bounce up to 2200.

berto.1986

⋅ Nov 6, 2018 8:19 PM

I totally agree with you.. I will start to short sp500 when we will have the inversion of the yield curve. All other indicator are telling us that we are overvalued (Cape, q ratio, buffet indicator) but the most important is the yield curve. We have to wait..