Chart says it best. Got an A-B-C in progress. Very clear downtrend, A-leg in defined channel, high volume in selling, small volume buying.
Definite 5-wave Elliott impulse forming in the reactionary B wave. Fifth and final wave should push to the 0.786 Fibo at 2905. Then enter C.
This ABC is in turn part of a larger zig-zag correction in progress since Jan 2018, complete with triple top. This is the right shoulder of a peak formation which in turn is the right side of a Grand H&S.
Do not sell puts short now, it will not be free money!
As always, not investing advice, just an idea. Trade at ur own risk; GLTA!
Comment
⋅
Ooops, cursor slipped in pub; Fibo retrace from 2958 gives box from 2898 - 2924 for 0.618 - .0786 Fibo retracements. Intraday high of 2892 on Thursday at noon likely to be passed Fri, all bets off after that. 2905 remains a likely target.
Comment
⋅
Notice the horizontal line at 2905 reaches back to support/resist line from 12-22 April, a ten-day band and likely strong R now.
Comment
⋅
Looks like we got throwover at 292. On Thursday, retested Friday. Find out soon! Might be fooling myself to pick a 5-wave out of this B move, it's been chaotic and choppy, typical of B-havior.
Trade closed manually
⋅
This is a risky business. Learned hard way not to blow up account. IMO equities appear to be consolidating near current levels with support at 2820 Sand P and 25400 Dow. While these might break, and if they do, it will go south fast, IMO a significant possibility for a bounce from this area from May double bottom could well carry stocks to new ATH in September, the most frequent month of new highs. So I closed out shorts and wait to see. Might be missing out, but FOMO kills; GLTA!
Trade active
⋅
Re-entered shorts on confirmation of downtrend- broke down through consolidating triangle, clearly broke to downside. Good R-R now for shorts- expect jerky rally-retreat pattern, stepping-stone lower to expected measured move around 2710. An extension of wave could carry to 2640 as many contributors have suggested. Short the rallies and cover on the selloffs when they reach lower TL in channel.
Comment
⋅
This is extremely gratifying to see the index fill in my chart. IMO a cascade waterfall decline is imminent- June Swoon, redux.
Trade closed: stop reached
⋅
Did not get the expected sell at the bell and futures misdirected direxion. Trading close to pivot and could pop quickly back up channel. Sidelining for now.
idk if that's how fib tools work, but I agree with you prediction that more down side is on the way
DaddySawbucks
⋅
@BMLemon, IKR, See my comment, the cursor slipped, correct Fib box #s posted in comments!
BMLemon
⋅
@DaddySawbucks, oh reading. Yeah, I should do that more. I was wondering about your elliot count, you have a 5 wave heading up for the B. I think that should only be a 3 wave, making the B already in and sending us down for the C. TBH, Elliott Wave has so many exceptions that it almost seems impossible to predict, only validate in retrospect.
DaddySawbucks
⋅
@BMLemon, Indeed. Your point is excellent. Pretty certain we topped on Thursday, failed retest Fri, look to confirm Monday.
Typically a countertrend wave will be A-B-C. Definitely looks clear in the retrospectometer! ty for comment & clarity. GLTA!
DaddySawbucks
⋅
@BMLemon, Looking at it hard again I wonder whether the current downmove could be a wave 2 ending above previous lows. If so, we gonna see a terrific rally into a wave 3, possibly new ATH. Just too hard to call and too chancy now. better to get into cash IMO. Made bank off the shorts; pigs get slaughtered... EW always looks so obvious in rear view mirror, but looking forward -> Bulls & Bears see what they want to see. Let's wait and see where this is really headed, eh?!
DaddySawbucks
⋅
Snd P rolled over at 2960 b/c 3k was just too much to ask... IMO it won't happen. Money isnt' there, buyers lost enthusiasm at nosebleed zone. After the ABC probly get an expanding flat to enter Bear market.