This my best guess of the EW count. Keep in mind that the Dow and NYA both peaked on June 8th. I think the bear market rally finished for NYA and the Dow in June. However, due to the S&P 500's distortions of being controlled by about 15 stocks, it has moved above the June 8th high. It is likely forming a divergence as it did with the Jan and Feb peaks. Market Breadth and Sentiment indicators are pointing to a crash move, just as they did back in Feb.
I think we rally tomorrow as the Republicans unveil their plan for stimulus this week. They want 1 trillion dollars. The Democrats want 3 trillion dollars. The two political parties only have 2 weeks to get this done before the August 10th recess. Realistically, I don't think that is enough time to get it done. I think the two political parties will argue over the stimulus and that stock market sells off on that. The perfect storm is present. See the reasons below.
The catalysts:
The election (uncertainty) Covid-19 cases trending higher On July 30th a major contraction in Q2 GDP Q2 Earnings US-China tensions Trump has scrapped plans for a phase 2 deal with China Stimulus Effect Wearing Off New State Lockdowns New Stimulus Debate and Delay Uptick in Unemployment with New Lockdowns
u ppl never learn it's so obvious... so thats why this won't happen yet
The_Chart_Pattern_Trader
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@AndersonAES, Mr. Obvious expresses the very complacency I've been talking about. His comment is the exact same complacent tone taken just before the last crash in Feb, just before the S&P 500 dropped 1202 points and nearly 35 % in one month. The last time we were also told it couldn't happen by same Mr. Obvious types, who are so much smarter than all the rest of us because "u ppl never learn." Complacency is ALWAYS associated with peaks and fear is ALWAYS associated with bottoms. Mr. Obvious and traders like Him were blindsided by the last drop and they will be blindsided by the next drop. It's called complacency. It happens in every bear market. Maybe rather than Mr. Obvious, it should be Mr. Oblivious. An Oblivious person is one who is completely unware of something that is staring them right in the face.
Prizax
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@The_Chart_Pattern_Trader, oh dont get me wrong, I hope you are right so I can buy again at lower prices, it's just that most ppl who want a big next crash is mostly those who just missed the last one
DaddySawbucks
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Might not have enough bull power to close that gap at 3330 RSI diverges; rollover can occur any day atm imo; ty 4 post!
The_Chart_Pattern_Trader
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@DaddySawbucks, I agree, the market is on borrowed time. The market breadth and sentiment indicators that I watch are warning that a massive SELLING tsunami is about to hit the market any day now. Nevertheless, the count is my best guess at this time. While I think we get a bounce, we still may fall short of the gap fill. So keep that in mind. I'm looking for a sharp turn down after this bounce.
DaddySawbucks
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@The_Chart_Pattern_Trader, Right on. Last week was a warmup IMO; might be first wave in deep selloff.
That may very well happen but it is highly speculate and needs an outside catalyst (e.g. sharp increase in COVID cases and lockdowns) in order to materialize. With the Fed ready for more stimulus if needed, I can't see that happening but I keep an open mind for that scenario if I see the above catalysts. On the shorter term though my view is the following:
The_Chart_Pattern_Trader
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@TradingShot, It always amazes me how in every bear market rally you always see most people who bury their heads in the sand and blindsided by bear market rallies. They no longer believe that bear markets exist. It happens in every bear market. They always say this time is different. That's what was said during the bursting of the tech bubble. Believing in a bear market when in the midst of one is NOT "highly speculative," it is reasonable. It is based on facts. I've been through 4 bear markets now and it is always the same thing. Complacency reigns supreme as traders and investors take the same tone as in this post, that the Fed will save us, or to quote "with the Fed ready for more stimulus if needed, I can't see that happening". As the old saying goes "there are none so blind as those who will not see." It is "highly speculative" to ignore the fact that you are in a bear market while in one. That's "highly speculative." We are in a bear market.
In bear markets people get lulled into a false sense of security that the stock market can't go down because of reasons like stated in this post, that the Fed will save us. They believe that bear markets are "highly speculative," as stated in this comment. Even the Fed cannot prevent a legitimate bear market from happening. We see this same complacency in every bear market. This time the excuse for complacency is that the Fed will save us. The Fed wasn't able to prevent the last down turn in Feb, and they won't be able to prevent the next downturn.