S&P 500: short/mid/long term Forecast. Conclusion: We are fucked

SPCFD:SPX   S&P 500 Index
First of all: These are all just considerations on my part and should not be regarded as financial tips.

I have been very concerned with the problem in the past few weeks and see a good chance that my forecasts will come true.

I mostly refer to the Great Depression because all of the older predictions turned out to be correct.

Short-term: We will see a smaller dump. Various triggers, further unemployment rates, economic decline of 12% etc.

Mid-term: Investors continue to trust the Fed, which will continue to print money. The general population will also start investing as many will believe it can only go higher.

Long-term: The corona virus was only a trigger for the bursting of the bubble. The little upswing we will see is also called "Death Cat Bounce". It gets bad. I don't have to say more.

All right, if you disagree, just write a comment. Liken doesn't hurt either. Thanks (:

Comment: Looks like there would be no more crucial dump down. The idea is still active, but could go faster than expected.


I will disagree with you only because as soon as we test/break the lows JPOW is going to announce the fed will start buying equities.
+4 Reply
@chrv, And you think the Fed can stop a crisis simply by buying?
+1 Reply
@chrv, fed isn't allowed by law to buy it. It would be illegal pt.
+1 Reply
Crypto1337Dk ChristianSennesvik
@ChristianSennesvik, Like that have ever mattered
+2 Reply
Liquid_Quants ChristianSennesvik
@ChristianSennesvik, The Fed is currently doing things that are illegal under the Fed Reserve ACt.
HAHAHAH best one I've seen, ty for laugh. Followed <3
+2 Reply
The optimism and hype in the public space is spectacular... COVID in the US hasn't even started seeing an increase in recovered cases... it doesn't matter if the cover data around the world is a bit skewed or misreported... the graphs will eventually all have the overall shape of Chinas graph... we have an enormously long way to go to start seeing meaningful recovery. Stimulous is like stealing energy from the future. It works to pounds red bull before a race, as you get to rest after the race... but the economy never stops. So now we just crash even harder when the Fed's caffeine rush wears off. Pop!
+1 Reply
A "W", or double-bottom is much more likely. At this point in the market cycle you should have some cash. Maybe 10%, 20% or 30% cash. You should be happy that prices are going down. Then you can buy more at the bottom. If you don't have any cash, now is a good time to analyze your portfolio, and see if anything can (or should) be sold. Not every trade is a winner. Nobody can predict the future. But you should know what is likely and unlikely. Best.
+1 Reply
PassiCoin tradeBob1
@tradeBob1, I wouldn't bet on a floor in the times of Corona. You correctly recognized that there cannot be only winners. But it is just the case that ordinary people think that one should buy now. Even the quick "jump" doesn't look like a bottom.
PassiCoin PassiCoin
@PassiCoin, So I definitely have the feeling that there is a bull mood among the less experienced society. If even the "stupid" buys stocks,you should sell.
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