The topping pattern has in a general sense been very consistent with the previous top patterns of 1915, 1920, 2000 and 2008.
See first:
We have the head and shoulders formation and recently the market has been making overall breaks down but there have been many vicious rallies. If the other models are any guide, this is building up to a rug pull. When one of the vicious rallies turns into a new low, but this time there's no relief rally. It starts to break and then it downtrends. If this was the case we'd have to be late into it. With only a couple more rallies to goat the most. This section of a trend never lasts that long (But doesn't 5 weeks of sideways feel like a long time when you're in it).
The completion of this type of crash model would "Bake in" a 50% drop. All of these style of crashes first downtrend progressively for the first 20% or so and then once breaking would enter a crash to 50% down.
If this happened, the big question would be what next?
If we were to continue with the model of these crashes the worst would be about over after the next big breaks. However, one has to consider that if we're in a larger crash it's possible we had our "Roaring 20s". If that was the case, while a crash may bounce 50 - 60% off the high, the overall bear move would be expected to take out all of the gains of the post 2008 rally. The market eventually trading under the 2008 low (Which I'd expect to take many years with multiple rallies before that hit).
This would be full trend failure. A correction to a move starting in the 1980 and ending December 2021.
See first:
We have the head and shoulders formation and recently the market has been making overall breaks down but there have been many vicious rallies. If the other models are any guide, this is building up to a rug pull. When one of the vicious rallies turns into a new low, but this time there's no relief rally. It starts to break and then it downtrends. If this was the case we'd have to be late into it. With only a couple more rallies to goat the most. This section of a trend never lasts that long (But doesn't 5 weeks of sideways feel like a long time when you're in it).
The completion of this type of crash model would "Bake in" a 50% drop. All of these style of crashes first downtrend progressively for the first 20% or so and then once breaking would enter a crash to 50% down.
If this happened, the big question would be what next?
If we were to continue with the model of these crashes the worst would be about over after the next big breaks. However, one has to consider that if we're in a larger crash it's possible we had our "Roaring 20s". If that was the case, while a crash may bounce 50 - 60% off the high, the overall bear move would be expected to take out all of the gains of the post 2008 rally. The market eventually trading under the 2008 low (Which I'd expect to take many years with multiple rallies before that hit).
This would be full trend failure. A correction to a move starting in the 1980 and ending December 2021.
