capriole_charles

The Stock Market is Stabilizing.

SPCFD:SPX   S&P 500 Index
The mean time between official (NBER) US recessions over the last 150 years has increasing a lot (see gray lines).

Yet the S&P 500 % drops remain relatively consistent averaging 25%.

The market is considerably stabler than it was a century ago.
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Easy to stabilize it when you just kick the can down the road and mess around with monetary policy. Imo we sacrifice long term stability for short term gains. "As long as the lines go up, I'm happy!"
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@stallrussell, agree re-monitory policy! Though it is interesting that the drops have been fairly consistent in magnitude through time. Though we are undertaking a big experiment with zero and negative interest rates globally, which will certainty come back around to bite.
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stallrussell capriole_charles
@capriole_charles, I mean, it works for now. It's interesting to me that for so long traditional investing has moved away from hard assets and into paper assets and equities. I mean, don't get me wrong, I play the game! I just wonder what good it will do if there were any type of currency crisis in the US/globally. What would the end result be? Anyways your observation that the market seems to be more stabilized sparked all this for me lol. I think we trade one problem for another at a later date :/ But what else to do?
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@stallrussell, great points. When the next crisis does hit, I think the rush to hard assets will be significant.

The endless quantitative easing and low/negative rates will probably devalue currencies more than usual. I expect gold will do well leading into the recession, but I also believe Bitcoin will do tremendously as a deflationary asset, hedge and simply because it is more liquid and usable than gold. Expect that the next crisis will probably spark adoption. Time will tell!
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stallrussell capriole_charles
@capriole_charles, The big question is if and when. I tend to lean towards just the when side of things, but I have to wonder if we will successfully keep this system going? Either way, interesting times we are in.
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@stallrussell, that is the big question! You might want to check out the article I just published on Medium which hopefully gives some guidance when that might be!

I also just published indicator "Charles Recession Watch" to provide some insight on current risk levels towards incoming recessions.

Article here: https://medium.com/@charleswedwards/the-next-recession-672c16156e2
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interesting, thanks!
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@TheDudeForex, no worries! Watch this space, big study on recessions coming out shortly on Medium (https://medium.com/@charleswedwards).

Will also release a Recession Watch Indicator on TradingView soon, so you can prepare for the next recession.
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