It´s The Politics. Stop Following Technical Analysis ...

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U.S. investors brace for mounting political risks as they decode Trump

Quote: Barry James built up his $4 billion mutual fund largely by studying balance sheets, earnings and market share. In the last few weeks, however, he has realized that he must look at a new force in the market: U.S. President Donald Trump.

Trump's unpredictable governing style and stated desire to renegotiate trade agreements and punish companies that seek out lower-cost forms of labor are upending the classic notion of fundamental investing, said James, who manages the James Balanced Golden Rainbow fund.
Comment: Follow: Donald Trump´s U-Turns

Comment: Follow the upcomming elections in the Netherlands, France, Italy and Germany.

Comment: Follow first the election in the Netherlands (March) and France (April/May).

Comment: See how markets starting to ignore Donald Trump´s Twitter attacks.

Comment: Follow legal issues on Trump´s "Executive" orders.

Comment: See how comedians act on Trump or if stories about the Trump Organisation or Steve Bannon are only good to laugh about.

Comment: Follow the news: Border Wall? To expensive. Border Tax? U.S. Citizes needs to pay this. Expect Donald Trump to stop campaigning.

Comment: Watch Donald Trump´s approval rates.

Comment: Watch the Mexican Peso as perfect Fear Indikator.

Comment: Remind why your bias was turned to "bearish" and that you have been a part of the crowed missing the latest up move to new record highs.!/q...
Comment: Watch Europe closely and check the real facts. Ignore any political bias.

Comment: Watch closely retail investors sentiment (in Europe). Mostly bearish - still.

Comment: Finally: Never forget Chinas currency problems and the ongoing captial outflows. But here it´s the same: Try to focus on fakts only and don´t follow any opinion.

Comment: China is still a ticking time bomb:

Comment: But same time traders and Investors are probably to bearish about Europe:

Comment: Europes Indizes gaining still momentum and you can see new all time highs or new all time highs to come.!/3...
Comment: FEB 16 2017: Donald Trump backfires Europes far right wing parties:

Dutch PVV, Wilders anti Islam Party, lost almust 40% of Voters since Trumps inauguration on Jan. 20th. Germany´s AfD lost also up to 40% of voters.

Todays Dutch polls showing a dramatic loss for Wilders anti islam party PVV. Polls from January 20 showing a huge vitory for Wilders winning up to a total of 36 lawmakers in the elections. Todays polls showing only likely to win 20 seats in Parliament. A huge loss of allmost 40% of Voters in one month only.
Comment: FEB 16 2017: Donald Trump backfires on Netherlands far right wing party. Expect same for Marine Le Pen.

Quote: With his uncompromising language about immigration and Islam, Geert Wilders has been stirring up Dutch politics for several years now. But since the election campaign in the Netherlands formally began Wednesday, polls have shown that his popularity is on shaky ground. His far-right Freedom party (PVV) still holds an advantage over the ruling Conservative (VDD) party, but one that is narrowing.
Wendy Jansma, a 29 year-old healthcare student, was considering voting for Wilders. She likes that he has “the guts” to talk about problems, and is willing to put Dutch people ahead of newcomers. But the behaviour of newly elected U.S. President Donald Trump has caused her to reconsider. “I am afraid when I look at Trump – I don’t want to have someone like that in power here. That would be taking a big risk,” she told Vice News.
Comment: FEB 17 2017: Border adjustment tax seemed to wane after President Donald Trump this week met with retailers who oppose the plan.

Quote: Border adjustment tax is on 'life support,' and tax reform may come later ... and with less punch
The tax plan that promises the biggest cuts in corporate taxes without straining the federal budget looks increasingly unlikely to become law.
"I wouldn't call it dead, but I would say it's on life support," said Greg Valliere, chief global strategist with Horizon Investment. Valliere said the chances for the so-called border adjustment tax seemed to wane after President Donald Trump this week met with retailers who oppose the plan.
Comment: FEB 18 2017: Trump approval rating sets a new low with 38

Expect Donald Trump is losing more and more supporters. Same time the low approval rates explaining why Trumps tone since few days getting more and more aggressive. Expect another u-turn if Trump recognize that he will fail if he do not change this way of communication. Expect that one of his aids (Conway/Spicer/Bannon) gets "fired" next. This will cause another spike to the upside for stockmarkets.

Comment: FEB 18 2017: Trumps approval rates on record lows. What does this means (historically)?

Read more:
Quote: Disapproval
Trump’s Approval Ratings Are Down. How Much Does It Mean?
Comment: FEB 18 2017: Washington PR offensive fails to quell Europe's anxiety over Trump

Commodities16 minutes ago (Feb 18, 2017 04:31PM ET)

By Noah Barkin

MUNICH (Reuters) - One month into the unusual presidency of Donald Trump, his most senior cabinet members were deployed to Brussels, Bonn and Munich this week to reassure nervous Europeans that everything would be okay. ...
.... "Pence and Mattis and Tillerson can come here and talk about the importance of the transatlantic relationship and NATO - and that is all good," said Elmar Brok, head of the foreign affairs committee of the European Parliament and a party ally of German Chancellor Angela Merkel. "But we don't know what's coming on Twitter tomorrow morning," he said, referring to Trump's penchant for spilling out policy statements via social media. Source:
Comment: FEB 18 2017: Maybe this is the reason why Donald Trump rallies today in Florida

Drama mounts on Capitol Hill over Trump and Russia ties, 2016 election interference

Here’s how Congress is handling Russia investigations
Leigh Ann Caldwell
2 Hours Ago

Drama is building on Capitol Hill over current and potential investigations into Russia's alleged interference in last year's election and the pre-inauguration contacts between President Donald Trump's national security adviser and Russia's ambassador. At the end of a week's worth of new revelations and a resignation, FBI Director James Comey held a closed-door meeting with the Senate Intelligence Committee Friday.
Comment: JAN 19 2017: Trump backfires European far right wing parties: Germany´s AfD lost 50% of all likely voters within 4 month only.

Latest poll from today is showing Germany´s anti EU and anti Muslim Party AfD droped to 9% of likely voters in the September election. This is a huge loss of 50% of all likely voters. One day before Trumps inauguration opinon polls showing the AfD to win at least 16-18%.
Comment: JAN 20 2017: Investor´s Sentiment highly bearish

Investor´s Sentiment, Europe, Germany:

Today´s survey is saying

1. Pro´s put buying at Germany´s Eurex is as high as before the U.S. election.
2. Retail Investors Sentiment is most negative sind 2015.
Comment: FEB 21 2017 Border tax hits political reality, and only Trump can save it

John Harwood | @johnjharwood
6 Mins Ago
Quote: So, Sen. David Perdue of Georgia, a former retail executive, has pronounced border adjustment an economic threat. Sen. Tom Cotton of Arkansas, home base of Wal-Mart, has vowed to fight it. John Cornyn of Texas, who worries about the effect on oil prices and serves as the Senate's second-ranking Republican, last week pronounced border adjustment "on life support." Those three Republicans alone — if they hold firm — could be enough to sink the idea in a Senate where Republicans control just 52 seats. Source:
Comment: FEB 21 2017: Fears about LePen starting to show

Marine Le Pen could 'blow up' the European Union, and the fear's starting to show
Comment: FEB 21 2017: Watch how strong the Mexican Peos is today:

Comment: FEB 22 2017: Only one side can be right.

1. Markets:
Quote: Euro plummets to 6 week lows as Le Pen's presidential bid looms: SocGen
Investors appear to be increasingly nervous ahead of the scheduled elections in the Netherlands, France and Germany after failing to foresee the outcomes of the U.K.'s Brexit vote and U.S. President Donald Trump's victory. "So much uncertainty with 9 weeks to go until the first round of the (French) election means we will probably see nervousness persist, and undermine the Euro across the board," Societe Generale analysts concluded. Soure:


2. Facts:
Germany´s far right wing and antie EU and anti Islam Party AfD dropped today to 8% of likely voters fro 18% last year. This is a huge loss of 60% of all likely voters since August 2016.

Netherlands far right wing and anti EU, anti EURO and anti Islam Party PVV (Wlders) is loosing very fast ground now week by week and lost at least 25 - 40% of all likely voters. The PVV is now expected to win 16% of all votersonly to become probaly second stronges party only. This is the lowest numbers in more than two years. The Nederlands elections is held on March 15 2017.
Comment: FEB 22 2017: Far-right PVV losing seats, liberals remain stable, polls shows.

Today´s facts about Netherland elections: Donald Trump backfires European far right wing parties.

Quote: Geert Wilders’ far-right Party for Freedom (PVV) and Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s liberal People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) are in a dead heat in the lead-up to the March 15 Dutch election, according to a poll published Wednesday. Analyst Tom Louwerse told local media that while Rutte’s party has been relatively stable over the course of the past few weeks, Wilders’ has been on a slight downward trajectory, sliding from an expected 35 seats in polls last month. Both Wilders and Rutte are likely to fall short of an absolute majority in parliament. Rutte has ruled out cooperating with the far right to maintain power.
Comment: Comment: FEB 22 2017: BREAKING: French centrist politician Bayrou says will not stand in presidential election; will back Macron
Comment: FEB 23 2017: Prospect of a centrist alliance snaps 3-day losing streak for sovereign debt


Quote: Selling pressure on French bonds ebbed on Thursday, pushing the yield on the 10-year bond back below 1 per cent, as the prospect of a centrist alliance in the country’s presidential election eased anxiety that far-right candidate Marine Le Pen will win.
Comment: FEB 23 2017: Wilders PVV loosing more ground. Dutch Prime Ministers Rutte´s PVV Party is taking the lead now.
Todays polls:
VVD: 28 Seats
PVV: 26 Seats
Comment: FEB 23 Februar: The Washington Post counted 133 false or misleading claims in the first 35 days of Trump´s Presidency. US-Traders might underestimate that European Voters have a diffrent view on Trumps lies. Some of Trumps lies are about European Countries and had been answered allready on Trump twitter account by European Citizens. Trumps repeated lies backfires European far right parties.
Comment: FEB 24 2017: Todays Opinion polls for the first round of voting
Marine LePen: 26%
Emanuel Macron: 23,5%
This is the highest number of likely voteres for Macron and might explain the sharp drop in France Government Yields today and in the last three days. Source:
Comment: FEB 25 2017: Fake Sweden expert on Fox News – has criminal convictions in US, no connection to Swedish security

Story telling like this backfires European far right parties. U.S. and U.K. Traders underestimate how this is going to affect all European Elections. European Voters turning away from far right parties wich all supporting Donald Trump.
Comment: FEB 25 2017: Tweets like todays from Donald Trump backfires more to European far right parties. Lets watch the upcomming polls in the next days and weeks closely.
Comment: Comment: FEB 27 2017: Wall Street treads water ahead of Trump's Tuesday speech

(Reuters) - Quote: U.S. stocks struggled to find direction in early afternoon trading on Monday, shortly after the S&P 500 and the Dow hit record intraday highs on President Donald Trump's comments of a "big" infrastructure statement on Tuesday.
Trump's first address to a joint session of Congress on Tuesday evening is being closely watched by investors for clues on how he planned to carry out his agenda of boosting economic growth.
Comment: FEB 27 2017: New France Poll: Marcron narrows gap to LePen for first round of France election to 1,5%.
Macron: 24,5%
LePen: 26%
Comment: MAR 02 2017: Trump cuts today losses by 30 points in 10 Minutes only
Trump to talk to troops on Navy's next-gen aircraft carrier

Comment: MAR 03 2017: Thanks, Donald! Nice unmoved for the peso.
Comment: Comment: MAR 04 2017: French shares climb as Marine Le Pen loses ground. Euro gains 1,09% income day only to highest levels in 2 weeks.
Comment: MAR 05 2017 World News | Sun Mar 5, 2017 | 3:13pm GMT
Pressure mounts on France's Fillon as party heavyweights look to Juppe
Comment: MAR 05 2017 France's Fillon makes no promises to stay as party fights for electoral survival
Comment: MAR 06 2017: Trump and Geopolitics driving the markets today (not technical analysis)
Comment: MAR 07 2017: The Netherlands Election in 8 days from now is starting to drive the markets.

Comment: MAR 07 2017: The Dutch election is a dead heat, and the stakes for the EU could be huge

Do not underestimate the markets view about stockmarkets action

Quote: he French presidential election is grabbing all the headlines in Europe, but another contest may serve as an indicator for France's election — and Europe's future.

The Netherlands is scheduled to hold a general election on March 15, and right now the race is a dead heat between Geert Wilders — leader of the populist Party of Freedom (PVV) — and incumbent Prime Minister Mark Rutte, who leads the more moderate People's Party for Freedom (VVD).
Markets will be watching the Dutch contest not just to get a sense of who may win the French election, but to gauge the likelihood of the European Union's disintegration.
"That could be the canary in the coal mine," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Wunderlich Securities, referring to the Dutch election. "This could be a preview of what could happen in the French election."
Comment: MAR 07 2017: Dutch populist Wilders loses ground in the polls as 'Trump effect' comes into play: Analyst

Quote: Dutch populist Geert Wilders' popularity seems to be diminishing among the Netherlands electorate as his chances of an outright victory appear to be hampered by U.S. President Donald Trump's protectionist agenda.
With just over a week to go until the Netherlands general election, the leader of the anti-immigration Party for Freedom (PVV) is now running neck and neck with Prime Minister Mark Rutte's Liberals, according to a poll published Sunday.
"I can only speculate, but I think a negative Trump effects is at play," Holger Sandte, chief European analyst at Nordea, told CNBC in an email Tuesday.
Comment: MAR 08 2017: Wilder far right fatty loosing more ground now

PVV: 23 Seats
VVD: 25 Seats
Comment: Comment: MAR 09 2017:France's Macron seen on top in first round presidential vote: Poll
Comment: MAR 08 2017: Netherlands
Dutch Populist Wilders Feels Trump Burn With Slide in Polls
Comment: MAR 08 2017: Netherlands
Dutch Populist Geert Wilders Is Lagging in the Polls Due to the 'Trump Effect'
Comment: MAR10 2017: 5 days before the Dutch Election Netherlands anti-Islam and anti EU Party PVV is falling behind.

Number of seats to win next wednesday:

VVD: 25
CDA: 22
PVV: 22 (Netherlands far right party, Geert Wilders, hould had won 38 in June 2016)
GL: 20
Comment: March 23 201, French Election: After first TV-Debate Macron is taking the lead for the first round of election

Macron: 26%
LePen: 25%
Comment: MAR 23 2017: All major sentiment Indicators showing "fear" or "extreme fear" - even Markets just a few points under multi year highs or all time highs (DAX)

Before you read this news about todays market action (link below) keep your attention to the high level of putbuying at the CBOE: Total Intraday Put/Call Ratio 1,13. If ever there might be any higher number before the weekend the remind that usually high numbers like this are followed by a major spike to the upside some trading days later. Expect that a "fail" for Donald J. Trump might be nothing else than "sell the news" (for shortsellers). You need to invert the situation.

DAX Traders need to be aware that the EUWAX Sentiment Indicator today once more was extremely negative - means nothing else that putbuying was extremely high.
Quote: Wall St closes lower after Healthcare vote delay
Comment: MAR 24 2017: Trump's approval rating craters in poll — and his base is the culprit

Quote: President Donald Trump's approval rating has fallen to 37% — a new low, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released Wednesday. The poll found the president to be losing crucial support among Republicans, men, and white voters. The survey of 1,056 voters from across the US found that Trump's approval among Republican voters dropped to 81%, from 91% of those surveyed in a similar Quinnipiac poll two weeks ago. His disapproval rating among that group jumped to 14% from 5%.
The poll showed those in Trump's most supportive demographics — male and white voters — to be increasingly unhappy with his performance. Forty-three percent of men approved of Trump — down from 49% in the most recent poll, while 44% of white voters approved, also down from 49%. "Most alarming for President Donald Trump, the demographic underpinnings of his support, Republicans, white voters, especially men and those without a college degree, are starting to have doubts," the assistant director of the poll, Tim Malloy, said in a statement. Source:
Comment: Comment: MAR 24 2017: Trump demands support in do-or-die Friday vote on healthcare plan
Comment: MAR 30 2017: Trump declares war on Republican conservatives: 'We must fight them'
Comment: APR 01 2017: For Stockmarket Traders the Brexit is linked with "the rise of populism" in Europe. In most traders logic the Brexit should had caused a victory of Dutch far right party PVV (Gert Wilders) and should cause a victory of Marine LePen. The overall logic behind this story was to short European stockmarkets. This the rise of populism die not happened because voters in Europe turning away from populism, wich finally caused without any doubt the Brexit.

Two votes had been won by populists: The Brexit and the U.S. Election. Now lets have a look, how the latest approval rates are for Donald Trump:

MAR 30 2017: Majority of Americans think Trump's doing a poor job and the country is headed in the wrong direction: Poll
Trump's approval rating slips to another new low, much lower than resent presidents at this point in their terms
Comment: APR 02 2017 An influential GOP senator throws cold water on the polarizing House border tax provision
Comment: APR 03 2017: Donald Trump says he is ‘totally in favour’ of ‘wonderful’ EU
US President performs apparent U-turn after criticising bloc in previous interviews
Comment: Comment: APR 03 2017: 'Not natural friends': Trump, Xi will be 'odd couple' at first summit

Some White House aides believe Trump’s son-in-law and senior adviser Jared Kushner could be an influential moderating voice on how he handles Xi in their talks on Thursday and Friday. Contacts between Kushner and China’s U.S. envoy helped smooth the way for the meeting, according to current and former U.S. officials.
Even so, what worries the protocol-conscious Chinese more than policy clashes is the risk that the unpredictable Trump could publicly embarrass Xi, after several foreign leaders experienced awkward moments with the new U.S. president.
"Ensuring President Xi does not lose face is a top priority for China,” a Chinese official said. Source:
Comment: APR 04 2017: "Risk free trades against Europe on the rise of populism" vs. facts and figures

Quote: In recent polls, AfD (Germany´s far right party) has dropped dangerously close to the five percent threshold
Head of AfD, Frauke Petry (41), who has been under pressure within her Party, has now struck back – by indirectly threatening to step down
In recent polls, AfD has dropped dangerously close to the five percent threshold (currently seven percent, according to Allensbach). Without Petry, this might become even more of a tight squeeze. In the end, the party might fail to make it into parliament. Source:
Comment: APR 04 2017: Michael Hasenstab bets against euro in populist hedge

Quote: Michael Hasenstab is betting against the euro, a striking position for an investment manager celebrated in Europe for throwing the weight of Franklin Templeton’s flagship bond fund behind Ireland and Hungary as they emerged from the debt crisis. Speaking to the Financial Times, his comments highlight the concerns of many international investors, amplified following a campaign pledge from Marine Le Pen, presidential candidate of the far right in France’s upcoming presidential election, to withdraw the country from Europe’s single currency.
Comment: APR 05 2017 - Quote: In reversal, Bannon removed from National Security Council
(CNN)Steve Bannon, President Donald Trump's chief strategist, has been removed from his permanent seat at the National Security Council, multiple sources tell CNN, moving the council into a more traditional format.
The decision, which one source with knowledge said was made by Trump himself, comes after the President in January authorized the reorganization of the National Security Council to include Bannon as a permanent member of the panel. Source:
Comment: Comment: APR 06 2017 - Head of House conservatives: Tax reform possible by August
Comment: APR 06 2017- Europe, Êconomy
Draghi says ECB's policy stance is still appropriate, too soon to reduce stimulus
Comment: APR 08 2017: Marine LePen now lost 20% of likely voters for first round of election compared to June 2016
Comment: APR 10 2017 - Opinion: Trump, May show surprising tilt toward pragmatism
Quote: Instead of acrimony and tantrums, we got cooperation and compromise
... However, in the past few days, the U.S. and British leaders have shown they are perfectly capable of reasonable policies designed around compromise rather than confrontation. ...
... The president carried out what appears to have been another valuable service by removing his top aide Steve Bannon from the White House National Security Council, where the former head of right-wing website Breitbart News had seemed out of place. ...
.... In a retreat from “no-holds-barred” Brexit orthodoxy, Britain has said it would abide by some rules — including free movement of citizens — during a transition in which new regulations are being phased in. On a visit to Saudi Arabia last week, May attuned her EU dictum to Realpolitik principles, accepting that no full trade deal can be concluded until after the U.K. leaves and conceding that immigration from the EU could continue until after the next British election in 2020. ...
Comment: APR 12 2017- Fitch changes its mind: Trump isn't a threat to the world economy after all

- In February, Fitch warned that Trump posed a danger to global economic stability.

- In April, the ratings agency says the president's pro-growth agenda would push GDP more than expected.

Concerns linger over protectionism and debt, but the report was a major change from the previous warnings.
Comment: APR 15 2017: "Stockmarkets in historiy never had been more political based than today".
Source:, the most important newspaper for DAX-Traders.
Comment: APR 14 2017: French presidential race tightens further as vote looms
Comment: APR 15 2017: "The Art of Deal" - the question is, who made this deal?
China could had used Kim Jon un as troublemaker to get a good trade deal as trouble shooter. A political masterpiece, made in China.
Comment: APR 17 2017 - Wall Street banker Cohn moving Trump toward moderate policies
WASHINGTON/BOSTON (Reuters) - In a White House marked by infighting, top economic aide Gary Cohn, a Democrat and former Goldman Sachs banker, is muscling aside some of President Donald Trump's hard-right advisers to push more moderate, business-friendly economic policies. Source:
Comment: APR 17 2017 - Border Adjustment TAX maybe never to come:
Quote: Supporters of the border-adjustment provision point out that it would raise $1 trillion in revenue that could be used to help pay for lowering tax rates. Mnuchin told the Financial Times that there are other ways that the White House could raise $1 trillion but that the border-adjustment proposal is not "off the table." Source:
Comment: APR 20 2017: It´s now headline on
French Election Shocker: Pollsters Baffled by Four-Way Race
Comment: APR 20 2017 - Geopolitics setting the tone at all financial markets. It´s the topic on´s weekly comic
Comment: APR 24 2017: Wall Street surges, Nasdaq hits record on French vote result
Comment: Trump agrees 'not to terminate NAFTA at this time'
Comment: APR 27 2017 - China welcomes U.S. saying it's open to talks on North Korea
Comment: Donald Trump offers to meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un 'under the right circumstances'
Comment: Trump floats Kim Jong Un sit-down: ‘Absolutely’ would meet with North Korean leader
Comment: Comment: Playing games: If ever Russia shot down a US warplane at, before or after the G20 summit all 18 (western) of the G20 Nations are forced to back Donald Trump. Win win situation for both Donald J. Trump and Vladimir Putin facing growing opposition at home.
Comment: Donald Trumps approval rates on new record lows:
Comment: President Trump's six-month approval rating is lowest ever recorded — but he says it's 'not bad'


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