If the long - term Elliott wave count is correct a Cycle degree bull market could be complete at the SPX January 2022 peak. Corrections are usually in proportion of both price and time to the prior motive pattern. In this case the 13 - year bull market could have a correction lasting years - perhaps 3 to 5 years. As for price, its possible the SPX could decline to the 1,300 area.
In the near-term the SPX appears to have reached a temporary oversold condition, note the weekly RSI at the June 2022 bottom. The SPX could be in a multi-week rally lasting into August 2022. Seasonal patterns are bearish September to October.
The SPX could reach the 2250 to 2650 zone in October 2022.
I think your work is done well however I disagree with the multi week rally. These are exceptional market conditions and I believe will not coincide with the typical market movements. We have a fed trying to hide the actual state of the economy and eventually that has to be addressed. They were supposed to be tightening and are far away from there goal and eventually bonds will have to be sold. With the dollar going up and euro weakening the bond sales should be coming any day now. We also have energy being attacked at a massive scale. There are supply issues most of which are being created intentionally and spending has not really been slowing. The moves we have seen have been based off talk more than action. The feds will have to start catching up and we will see MASSIVE moves down. I don't believe the rally will last weeks and not even sure it will continue through this week. The government may be lying but investors know the truth and will adjust the markets accordingly
markrivest
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@DerekMorrison, Thanks for your detailed explanation. You are probably correct, longer term there are major problems. Markets do not move in straight lines. The SPX 2022 drop has lasted five months, January to June. Please see what happen five months after the start of the prior SPX bear market October 2007 to March 2009. In March 2008 the SPX ralllied for about two months then resumed its down trend.
DerekMorrison
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@markrivest, I certainly hope you are correct and I have looked back and tried to theorize the movement based off of past performance and categorize similarities in market conditions. I have found some similarities that are basic opposites for the most part but certainly none that mirror these times. There have been measures the government in form of policy and fed in form of doing their actual job that could combat the market environment that we are in but they seem to have no intention of doing it. And one major factor I have not been able to equate is the massive amount of inexperienced retail trade happening. I have noticed a pattern that big money pulls away for periods of time and allows retail to move the markets and those move are almost always bullish even when they should be bearish. Given that variable I would watch volume careful now that sentiment turned bullish and the moment you see large up ticks in volume thats when I would look for the next leg down. I believe they do this intentional to take money from retail investors and get larger amounts on what they either hold and or what they plan to short
DerekMorrison
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@markrivest, Also keep an eye on things that seem to be tied together in opposites of normal movements. Like the dollar going up but simultaneously equities and Crypto are moving up as well. Those movements are unnatural which implies to me that this is a false move to the upside and will immediately be knocked down. It is either a scam by altering the algorithms or big money creating a narrative to allow retail to make bullish moves for their next intended sale off and how long they allow the movement up is certainly unknown but I have been able to be pretty accurate based off volume
DerekMorrison
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@markrivest, keep an eye on commodities also with the farmer strikes going on and Canada saying they will take on the same policy changes that caused the strikes in other countries. Question is will Biden follow suite. I would believe a steady rise in commodities in the near term and very soon a massive move to the downside in equities
hndrxxxx
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funny how this the beginning 5th wave of 5 the wave.
BlkGold
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SPX weekly RSI has held below the red SMA line for the past 7 months, with the exception of a few days in March. The weekly RSI has bounced back up to the SMA line from the mid-June low. I am curious why you believe the market still looks oversold.
markrivest
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@BlkGold, Please look at the monthly SPX Stochastic.