I wrote about the coming Quad Top resistance point a few days ago (linked to this Idea). I said it would present itself within the next few days and it has done so today. The question is what will occur over the next few days? We have also hit the 200 day SMA again (we bounced off it a week ago). Will we push higher through this too.
As my previous idea stated. The fourth time this Quad Top resistance has been met on the 5 occasions since 2000, the market has declined sharply. We are also fighting to stay above the 200 SMA again. Failure to stay above these levels in the next 3-5 days could confirm a steep decline is in the offing.
We will see what happens, but I am positioned for the decline based on history, the end of earnings season, and zero trade deal ratifications in sight.
Please check out the Felder Report, his analysis looks just like your quad top chart and is eerily similar to 1938. "Perhaps Jay Powell Just Got a Bad Case of Deja Vu" published today on his blog. By following the trend, I am long biased so far, - will prepare for a short should it rear its ugly head. And will it turn on a dime I wonder?
mattgetsbarreled
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I am waiting for 2814-2815 to short the absolute blank out of this thing
I see possible one more day of hopes and prayers for a deal with China, but honestly can't find it probable that it will produce tangible results.
The RSI is showing continued divergence, like this thing is ready to drop.
(mind you, I am shorting this with SDS)
mattgetsbarreled
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@Evdog9000, look at RSI 14 on the weekly chart, it suggests that we can have more upside until we top out putting the major dump towards first to 3rd week of march
MonetaryRebel
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@mattgetsbarreled, I see that there's room to go up in the weekly rsi, but not a lot. The daily is showing plenty of signs of pullback as well. All I know is if we break down from this upward yellow channel, I'm shorting the *** out of this thing on the retest haha!
(1hr chart)
(weekly chart)
mattgetsbarreled
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@Evdog9000, lol hell yeah bro I cant wait to go big short
gvoommen
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I don't see a decline. I see it moving sideways for a couple of months.
chinawildman
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@gvoommen, if it moves sideways like it did in nov that's enough decline for me :)