By now you are wondering if the stock market rally will ever end. Believe me, momentum and sentiment indicators are incredibly bearish. Just examine the recent NYSE 52-week new highs. Over the last several trading days new highs are significantly diverging with the SPX. A complete and total non-confirmation of the SPX new high.
From the October 9th bottom the SPX appears to be in an Elliott wave - Ending Diagonal Triangle. This is one of the most reliable Elliott Wave patterns. The final wave up looks like it could complete on October 17th. Target zone for top is SPX 2560.50 to 2562.50.
Pattern is invalid above SPX 2563.43.
If the SPX tops on 10/17/17 a mini crash to SPX 2120 - 2160 is a high probability. Time target is mid November. I will have more details about this in a future post.
In order to make the greatest possible long term TOP
Price must move past the point of no return ..which perhaps cannot be measured by traditional analytic measures in this bubble
as to bring in even the most hardened bears to the point of CAPITULATION.
Complacency is very high,as measured by the multi-week bottoming process in the VIX.
The Bullish Percentage Numbers for both the S+P and Nasdaq 100 are both markedly lower their previous highs,
while price continues to make an all time high, a major Non Confirmation Signal that should not be ignored.
The higher the market goes without even a marginal correction, the greater the possibility of a crash like event in the future.
The trend continues to be up...until it isn't ...and at that point...POOF.
Price must move past the point of no return ..which perhaps cannot be measured by traditional analytic measures in this bubble
as to bring in even the most hardened bears to the point of CAPITULATION.
Complacency is very high,as measured by the multi-week bottoming process in the VIX.
The Bullish Percentage Numbers for both the S+P and Nasdaq 100 are both markedly lower their previous highs,
while price continues to make an all time high, a major Non Confirmation Signal that should not be ignored.
The higher the market goes without even a marginal correction, the greater the possibility of a crash like event in the future.
The trend continues to be up...until it isn't ...and at that point...POOF.
THE_UNWIND