, we noticed how the S&P 500 was trapped inside a range from the June 16 spinning top candlestick. Prices remained within that range until Wednesday’s sharp drop, which may now create the potential for more downside.
The weekly chart has some warning signs. First, there was a bearish outside candle in the week ending June 12. That came after the Federal Reserve issued its predictably dovish and market-friendly statement.
SPX proceeded to make a lower high the next week and another lower high this week. It’s also in the process of forming a bearish inside week right now. Following the bearish outside week, that would be another sign of slowing bullish momentum.
The daily chart also has issues. First, the rally stalled earlier this month under the February 24 downgap. And now this week, prices are stalling under the June 11 downgap.
Next, MACD has been negative since the June 11 downgap.
Next is the potential break of a trendline that began in early April.
Finally, we have Thursday’s late rally back above 3,080. That was near the bottom of the June 16 spinning top. This creates the potential for old support to become new resistance.
Still, traders may want to see more confirmation before getting too bearish. Given the tight range, the key 3,000 level and 200-day simple moving average (SMA) are very close. It could take clear breaks of these levels for sellers to really pile in.
Remember next week is shortened for Independence Day (observed on Friday, July 3) but there is still plenty of news with monthly employment data and quarter-end. After that, we face an uncertain earnings season.
Thanks for sharing. Have a pretty similar outlook on the S&P, much more bullish on the NASDAQ... wonder if tech brings up the S&P or other sectors bring tech down?