This is one of the counts I've been tracking on SPX since November, and updating in real-time. Originally there were some unresolved questions about where exactly the B wave ends (11/7 or 12/3), and with the starting 1-2/i-ii of C. After this week I'm pretty confident in this count. But will "iii" still extend further? I'm "expecting" a reversal in micro-4, but the internals are not showing me a bottom yet. Moving Averages and are clearly pointing down, with no divergences.
Further extension of "iii" means this whole structure will likely go deeper. If we reach the C=2.0xA extension, the 2126 target is right at the 2015 highs, and this could end up being all of P.4.
Will "iii" continue to extend further? Right now this is looking likely for C reach the 2.0xA extension. The 2116-2126 target is right at the 2015 highs, and this could end up being all of P.4.
This is still looking likely for C to reach the 2.0xA extension. The 2116-2126 target is right at the 2015 highs, and this could end up being all of P.4.
Possibilities right now:
#1, BLUE COUNT - we get one more low in v of C of (A), but it might not reach expected target near 2250. Since we got a deep iv, it could be just a slightly lower low in the 2300-2330 region.
#2, PURPLE COUNT - similar to Blue, except B topped in November and we're in an ending diagonal for C (so all 'abc' moves). Waves i and ii get shifted, while iii, iv, and v stay where they are. Not fond of this count because iii is really extended, but the purple channel lines up well.
#3, YELLOW COUNT - we bottomed in (A) as WXY wave, and are now in (B). If we see continued strength, I would expect Wave A of (B) to reach near 2620 based on (a)=(c) extension of the move up since 12/26. Note the pink resistance band in that region.