nj_guy72
Short

SPX Wave 4 - Blue count

SPCFD:SPX   S&P 500 Index
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Just posting this here for the benefit of anyone who missed it in the chat room.

This is one of the counts I've been tracking on SPX since November, and updating in real-time. Originally there were some unresolved questions about where exactly the B wave ends (11/7 or 12/3), and with the starting 1-2/i-ii of C. After this week I'm pretty confident in this count. But will "iii" still extend further? I'm "expecting" a reversal in micro-4, but the internals are not showing me a bottom yet. Moving Averages and RSI are clearly pointing down, with no divergences.

Further extension of "iii" means this whole structure will likely go deeper. If we reach the C=2.0xA extension, the 2126 target is right at the 2015 highs, and this could end up being all of P.4.
Dec 24
Comment: 12/24 Update - today's action extended past the previous target for micro-3, so all the targets are now moved down. We might still see one last dip to 1.618 before getting a micro-4 bounce.

Will "iii" continue to extend further? Right now this is looking likely for C reach the 2.0xA extension. The 2116-2126 target is right at the 2015 highs, and this could end up being all of P.4.

Dec 26
Comment: 12/26 Update - We got that one last dip towards 1.618 (black fibs) that I mentioned the other day, and the micro-4 bounce. For now other targets remain unchanged from last update.

This is still looking likely for C to reach the 2.0xA extension. The 2116-2126 target is right at the 2015 highs, and this could end up being all of P.4.

Dec 28
Comment: Micro-4 bounced higher yesterday and today, almost getting to be "too big for 4" but count is not invalidated yet. Other targets remain unchanged from last update, but pushed out a little further in time. Added "alt" labels in yellow for another possible count. And finally there's also the possibility (which I consider unlikely at this time) that the (A) wave bottomed on 12/26.

Jan 04
Comment: 1/4 Update - Micro-count within wave iii invalidated, so adopting the former "alt" count as primary now (moved iii and v targets up). A lot of choppy action the past week and a half, but no clear sign that the bottom is "in", so I'm still looking lower. To signal that the bottom is in, first we need to close above the Feb. 2018 low. Today it was tested but could not close above it.

Possibilities right now:

#1, BLUE COUNT - we get one more low in v of C of (A), but it might not reach expected target near 2250. Since we got a deep iv, it could be just a slightly lower low in the 2300-2330 region.

#2, PURPLE COUNT - similar to Blue, except B topped in November and we're in an ending diagonal for C (so all 'abc' moves). Waves i and ii get shifted, while iii, iv, and v stay where they are. Not fond of this count because iii is really extended, but the purple channel lines up well.

#3, YELLOW COUNT - we bottomed in (A) as WXY wave, and are now in (B). If we see continued strength, I would expect Wave A of (B) to reach near 2620 based on (a)=(c) extension of the move up since 12/26. Note the pink resistance band in that region.

Jan 09
Comment: 1/9 - Final Update - Previous blue count invalidated by wave iv overlap with wave i. So trying the former purple count (shown below), and frankly it looks ludicrous with this last move up. It would've been okay as of my last update, but now the iv would be way out of proportion, and the usual "1=5" relationship would result in a truncated bottom. So at this point the yellow count is far more plausible, and I will continue analysis in a new post for the (B) wave up.

Thanks for the update
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Excellent chart.
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