Just passing this cool info written by a guy called Ben Carlson.
- Ben discusses the differences between probability and certainty:
"There are two arguments I see on a regular basis that show up as a result of data overload:
…because that’s never happened before.
…because that’s what’s always happened before.
-The problem with this line of thinking is that it can lead investors to fall into what I like to call the certainty trap. It’s this all-or-nothing line of thinking that causes so many to constantly attach extremes to every single market move or data point they see. The beginning of the recovery or the end of the world is always right around the corner. The assumption is that we’re always either at a top or a bottom when most of the time the markets are probably somewhere in the middle."
-The reason the investing certainty trap is so easy to fall for is because historical data can feel so safe and reassuring. Look here, my data says that this has never (always) happened in the past. Surely this trend will continue. I’ll just sit here and wait for my profits to start rolling in.
-‘Never’ and ‘always’ have no place in the markets because no one really knows what’s going to happen next. ‘Most of the time’ is a much more reasonable goal, because nothing works forever and always in the markets. If it did everyone would simply invest that way. I think a much more levelheaded approach is to follow the Jason Zweig 10 word investment philosophy:
-Anything is possible, and the unexpected is inevitable. Proceed accordingly.
1929 New Paradigm was not disputed. W. Buffett dismissing his own tried and true indicators either suggests he concedes he is a fraud or is making excuses to why it has broken all prior highs in excess valuation. The man called BITCOIN rat poison. I guess we are masochists' INSANE valuations trajectory with the assumption DEBT and DEFLATION is here to stay forever and with it stock market that decided blck is white and down is up.
samitrading
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@gdleibow, This is deep analysis, deep critical thinking kind of stuff . I think you probably have a point here.