The next 3-4 weeks are going to change the long-term trend direction of the "S&P 500". The equity index is now at the edge of the edge of staying within the uptrend or starting a bear market.
On Monday, April 2, 2018 most of the European stock markets were closed and bears used this situation to drag the "S&P 500" strongly lower that day. On Tuesday, April 3 the German "DAX" index reopened after Easter Holiday and continued the uptrend it started the previous week. This helps US stocks to rebound from Monday''s lows.
The TRIX indicator shows a bullish momentum divergence, which means the bulls have could have a small edge, if this week closes strongly up. Otherwise the "S&P 500" is going to start a downward spiral of new lows in the next months.
Bullish near-term odds allow the following setup:
Long entry: 2575
Target: 2740
Stop loss: 2542
Risk/Reward: 5
On Monday, April 2, 2018 most of the European stock markets were closed and bears used this situation to drag the "S&P 500" strongly lower that day. On Tuesday, April 3 the German "DAX" index reopened after Easter Holiday and continued the uptrend it started the previous week. This helps US stocks to rebound from Monday''s lows.
The TRIX indicator shows a bullish momentum divergence, which means the bulls have could have a small edge, if this week closes strongly up. Otherwise the "S&P 500" is going to start a downward spiral of new lows in the next months.
Bullish near-term odds allow the following setup:
Long entry: 2575
Target: 2740
Stop loss: 2542
Risk/Reward: 5
Trade active:
The S&P 500 spot intra-day bounced from 2575.49 after dropping from 2592.17 since the Tuesday cash market open. I went manually long at 2580 after seeing this low at 2575.49 hold for several minutes.
Target: 2740 or higher
Stop loss: 2542
Risk/Reward: almost 5
P.S. Today is the IPO of Spotify.
Target: 2740 or higher
Stop loss: 2542
Risk/Reward: almost 5
P.S. Today is the IPO of Spotify.
Comment:
Futures indicate a higher open for the S&P 500. It might be a bull trap, but I give the bulls the benefit of the doubt for now.
I'm going to close the long most likely on Thursday and then switch to the short side.