My last post noted SPX resistance in the 2458 area and a move above 2460 could open the door to the next resistance at 2470. Today 8/14/17 the SPX opened near the 2458 resistance area and quickly moved beyond this potential stopping point.
I had speculated that an Elliott Wave - Expanding Flat was forming. In this pattern wave "C" sub divides into five waves, this appears to be what could be happening.
****CAUTION*** there was a rally late on 8/14/17 that failed to exceed the high of the day and supposed wave .3 peak at 2468.80. Its possible this could be a truncated fifth wave - which if it is would mean the pattern is complete and the high at 2468.80 would not be exceeded.
If 2468.80 is exceeded the next bulls-eye resistance is at SPX 2470.10 with a broader zone up to chart resistance in the 2474 area.
If SPX 2475.00 is exceeded this opens the door for a new all-time high in the 2490 area.
Now that last weeks S+P LOW of 2437.75 has been taken out to the downside in trading on/8/17,
REFER to my earlier post suggesting that S+P 2432 would be the next area to be targeted for support.
Support has just been broken at 2432 to the downside, and it needs to hold on the close.
A close below 2432 would be EXTREMELY BEARISH !
Today's DECLINE on a 5 minute,and 30 minute chart that I keep has been the EASIEST to DEFINE.
CLEAR and Easily DEFINED.... CHART DECLINE !
THE_UNWIND
The_Unwind
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8/17 12:20pm Now that 2450 has been broken, it would seem inevitable that a retest of last weeks lows at 2438 would be in the cards.
I am thinking that there is now a reluctance to SELL, because the market ALWAYS rebounds for the BULLS.and bails them out.
The recent rally up from the brink last week to 2475 this week has created that psyche.
It will be very interesting to see going forward whether that "Buy The Dip "mentality continues to be the right call.
At some point, IT WILL NOT BE, and that's when all the late to the party BULLS WILL BE TRAPPED.
THE_UNWIND
The_Unwind
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S+P has followed thru exactly as I had expected today, after topping yesterday at 2475
with a break of Monday's 8/14 Open at 2454.96, putting in a morning low of 2451.42
It has since rallied off that low, but a more formidable test/ retest now awaits at S+P 2450
Resistance is currently at 2460.38
THE_UNWIND
The_Unwind
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This was an Excellent Market Call by Mr.Rivest.
It took a couple days to get up to 2470-2475 RESISTANCE,
but once price hit the identified resistance area,
the Decline was strong and swift !
THE_UNWIND
The_Unwind
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5 Minute RSI on the S+P has stayed Below 50,
since the bounce off IMPORTANT SUPPORT this afternoon 8/15 CL 2464.64 Bearish !
The_Unwind
The_Unwind
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VERY IMPORTANT S+P Support has now risen to 8/15 CLOSE of 2464.64.
A break of 2464.64 would send them down to test this weeks OPEN at 2454.96.
THE_UNWIND
The_Unwind
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S+P has just REVERSED from Major 60 MINUTE Resistance at 2475,
and has broken support at 2472,and 2470 and now is in a straight line decline DOWN.
THE_UNWIND
The_Unwind
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S+P has recovered from the "Brink", in what has become a Classic V Bottom ,
a powerful move in the opposite direction, a whipsaw, like the event/decline proceeding it ...never even happened.
These type's of incredible move's off the top/ bottom, catching the /bulls bears off guard in either direction has become typical of this bull market, with a sharp straight move down, shaking out even the strong hands
before reversing with a sharp straight up move the following week.
My work shows the break above 2472 this morning important, so it now becomes immediate, and important support.
2482 is Linear Resistance !
A move past 2482 would target the old highs,.. and beyond. 8/14 OPEN of 2454.96 IS NOW CRITICAL SUPPORT.
A CAVEAT : A REVERSAL of this move up, would probably be in the form of a sharp straight move down
Perhaps with little or no warning, with a large GAP move to the downside, trapping the "late to the party" buyers in thin air.
THE_UNWIND
kunsan
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I still have my eye on the Bradley date of August 20th which is/was expected to be a low. Given that the last date of August 10th seemed to coincide nicely with the market peak at 2191, I'm wondering if/how the market could make a new low this coming Friday or more likely Monday/Tuesday (given that the Bradley date is on Sunday). The obvious target for a low is the area of support at 2400 or so. It can get there IF the sharp rally just seen is wave 'a' of an 'abcde' triangle B which then resolves downwards to the 2400 area for C. A tall order and at the moment not looking likely. In order for this idea to become valid the market needs to head south to overlap the action in the 2445 area, and it needs to do that quite quickly, say later today or early tomorrow. If it DOES overlap 2445 then the triangle idea becomes a high probability option. Not a prediction, but an option to watch for *IF* the Bradley date is to be reasonably accurate.
kunsan
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We've printed a new low below 2438 as we approach the Bradley date of August 20th. Allowing a day or two either side of the Bradley suggests that the Bradley prediction of a low around Aug 20th is/was about right. We now have the August 10th Bradley signalling the market top at 2191, and August 20th signalling a low. The next Bradley date is August 26th (five or six trading days away). The Bradley roadmap suggests a flat to sideways market between Aug 20th and 26th, which could be a triangle or a rather slow tedious rising B wave. After Aug 26th the market is expected to enter a more prolonged decline until October 8th or so.
Note that on the Dow Jones I see the possibility of an expanded flat as the sharp decline has stopped at 1.382 of the previous rise. If so, the expected market rally into Aug 26th could be wave 'c' of that flat (and might of course be replicated in the SPX).
Now that last weeks S+P LOW of 2437.75 has been taken out to the downside in trading on/8/17,
REFER to my earlier post suggesting that S+P 2432 would be the next area to be targeted for support.
Support has just been broken at 2432 to the downside, and it needs to hold on the close.
A close below 2432 would be EXTREMELY BEARISH !
Today's DECLINE on a 5 minute,and 30 minute chart that I keep has been the EASIEST to DEFINE.
CLEAR and Easily DEFINED.... CHART DECLINE !
THE_UNWIND