SPX momentum indictors are bullish, daily MACD has a bullish crossover. RSI is not overbought, Stochastic has yet to reach overbought yet this current rally is already as large as the November rally. SPX has a good chance to reach at least a 55 to 60% retracement of the October - December decline.
You can't expect the RSI or Stochastic to get to overbought in a down trending market. Getting back to neutral is common for when they would turn back down if we've entered a bear market.
Assuming the US stock market is in a down trending market, I expect that the Stochastic can get overbought because it already became overbought in the November 2018 failed rally.
I just checked the daily RSI for the 2000 - 2002 bear market and the 2007 - 2009 bear market and at no point in either bear markets did the daily RSI reach the overbought level.
Thanks, this is very important evidence and means the RSI could be the most important indicator to watch in the next few weeks, espcially if the SPX can reach the 60% retracemt of the Oct to December decline.