Oversold it is, higher it must climb, until lower it gets again. Bounce coming- likely. Bull run again- unlikely imo.
Every bottom lifts VIX to >40 and true capitulation usually triggers trading halts. Didn't see these yet; not done.
Bear markets are not quickie corrections that serve as dips to buy. They grind on for months or years, median 17 months.
Don't expect any monster rallies although a summer rally is likely before the real bear growls in September.
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NB: 17 June Triple Witching; markets closed 2o juneteenth for new fed holiday. Could be a rush for exits Fri? IF a 75-bp hike is priced in this could bull after 2pm. All the vol past 4 days may have discounted worst case scenarios?
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Took a small gapfill play and closed it. NQ remains ^^ most of the fill action comes from DJI, SPY contains both so it slipped $2. Typically if gap won't fill in an hour it won't fill. A surprise at 2pm could fill it imo. So bloody risky trading on FOMC decision days and notice how all the option premiums are up 20+%? So hard to get anything when you pay too much...
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Absolutely textbook response to FOMC. First it sold ABC until 14:29 then JPOW starts to yak and BAM! Up the fkg thing goes for nothing more than pure bullshit.
Sold it, bought it, sold it. Goddamned market! STAY OUT if you value ur money! LMFAO
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Back at that line... watch it! Triple witching Fri before 3-day holiday weekend... !
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Opened SPY, DIA call spreads EOD, just three spreads, in the July DIA 300c, SPY 368C, short next weeklies.
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Ppl been asking about VIX and disappointed their vol plays not paying out, here is why:
Not yet panic selling, decline has been an orderly grind for most part, ofc it gapped down 3x but it's mostly steady drip, not a waterfall yet and there have been a few rallies and up days to moderate the decline.
Vix represents only options pricing on futures, from CBOE: "VIX measures market expectation of near term volatility conveyed by stock index option prices. " That is all it measures. Option pricing has been uniform and regular,with a few hot premium days but mostly on parity.
VIX didn't move that much given a 10% decline of index price; IME VIX plays mostly been poor game. Look, SPX goes off 400, VIX pops $4.
Lousy bet, only ever paid in COVID crash. A regular, orderly Bear market does not flashcrash with intense panic, it just grinds and grinds. So, puts remain fairly priced and the VIX fluctuates without huge spikes.
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Call spreads might be ITM on open, watch it for an early pop followed by drop? Gapping up to resistance overnite.
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Swing trade opportunity this week imo in long to close that gap from 4117. Probly won't get much higher imo.
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Closed longs into nutty gap, who knows wth is next
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Not chasing this! IF this is initiation gap it will not fill this week. IF it's just a short squeeze it will fade in a day or two.
Too soon to tell imo.
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Amazing, runs like a flatline all afternoon. <Yawn> Naptime!
Gap might not fill, it's a gap to fill a gap, lol.
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Gets old tryin to guess eod what's next, yet most of these moves happen AH, so many gaps fgs!
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Pretty amazing day so far, made $20 on puts and $20 more on calls! Banner day!! Quitting while I'm slightly ahead, lol.
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Hidden bear divergence is present, see my informational post. Remember: trends persist until a clear reversal occurs (Dow Theory).
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This rally probly has one leg left in it I believe Monday 6/27 was 4th minor wave. Not shorting yet.
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Yeah well omgosh. Did play fade the gap and closed early, it just keeps selling, no bounce in it. Looks toasted, really expected it to bull to close gap at 4018, not happening.
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Notice how VIX plays don't pay? SPX down 80 from HOTD and VIX just 27, barely moved. Useless to bet on it imo.
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+$4 > -$6 ...it moved ten bucks in four hours
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Looks like it's headed to close the gap at 3802
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sure looks like this is headed deep south again soon... waiting to see if it does alternating up/down/up day pattern.
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Closed the gap at 3802; closed my shorts
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Need to consider possibility of another face-ripping rally setting up from here. Summer trade thin volume often sparks stupid rallies. Been oversold. Anything can happen now, be ready, take small pos or NONE.
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CPE numbers in suggest inflation may have peaked, we have a secondary sell from the big tank on CPI, look to buy the double bottom for massive summer relief rally:
"The core rate of inflation also slowed to 4.7% in the 12 months ended in May from 4.9% in April and a 40-year high of 5.2% in March.
What’s more, the inflation readings in the core PCE rate from February through May were the smallest since the end of 2020.
Unlike its better-known cousin, the consumer-price index, the PCE gauge takes into account how consumers change their behavior in response to higher prices. They might substitute cheaper goods for more expensive ones to keep their costs down, for example.
The Federal Reserve views the PCE index as the best barometer of inflation trends.
The CPI climbed to a yearly rate of 8.6% in May to mark the highest level since 1981. Americans have to buy a lot of food and gas, and until the prices of those staples fall, they are going to feel the pain of high inflation.
Big picture: The economy is slowing as consumers and businesses grapple with high inflation and rising interest rates. The Fed is raising rates rapidly to try to slow the economy and tame inflation."
Be REAL careful about jumping into Bear Shares here. Looking at SPXS it jumped $1 although the index only moved 50 pips, it's a futures fund and the futures trading at a premium, would be good place to sell it rather than load up IMO. You're paying top dollar to get in atm.
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Opened covered call on INTC, short the 37.5c; and shorted a 36.5 put. Core holding, long term. If it gets called I won't cry if it gets put i short another call.
Too dicey to load up on calls atm imo, Friday could be bloody red if institutions unload before three-day weekend.
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Opening single diagonal call spread SPY 6Jul 374c short 1 jul 380c net debit $400
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Doubled down in two calls lol. Might get lower tomorrow, might not. 10650 was the last low on NQ, will it give a higher low? 10900 atm. IMO price around 10600 would spark buying, that's the 35% off price from ath.
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Watch RTY for sign of bottoming. Looks like the curve flattens out. Added to SPY calls in two 373c spreads.
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Calls went green and closed em. Watch n wait. Shorted another INTC put. Be a good price if I take delivery imo.
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IWM flattens out
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Nice little retrace closed short puts +35%; wouldn't bet on it crawling a lot higher today, gap to fill next week imo. Maybe, idk. Retraced to the opening gap price; often meets resistance here intraday.
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Had to roll INTC short call out, moved up nicely! Now short 8 Jul 38 strike.
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Rolled the short call out again to 38.5, damned nice rally, eh? Told ya IWM/RTY was to watch, short-killing retracement from the flatline.
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Not chasing it higher, might be another short entry, eh?
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Didnt' short it happy to say, looks like the gap could fill today after all. Making money, risk-off.
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NB: Got a different pattern today; bearish, yes but instead of grinding down all day like it has been, we got a real nice retracement today. See how it closes; might get a Dragonfly candle, a long wick. Bullish if it does imo. Would not open more shortz here, could sell more tomorrow, or could be a bully Friday after all. Pure guess!
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Textbook amazing gapfill, ran up to =.16c above close and rolled over. It is a bullish candle, see what Friday brings!?!
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An amazing day, market behaving like scripted text, gaps down, runs lower, fill the gap, secondary sell back to opening price. Would not short this atm! Acts like setting up for a bull run imo. Could be wrong, idk. No position but INTC stonks, no options can gap either way imo.
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Flipped puts early then calls back in cash. Gonna be choppy and overnite futurz did trade to 3750 so we could see that price today, or it might just hang. EOD can get wild before 3-day holiday, might sell or short covering can bull EOD, pure crapshoot. Mostly staying out.
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Former support now resistance at 3808
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Picked up another 100 INTC and shorted a July $36 put. Small potatoes today. Gonna fluctuate. Stepping away until EOD
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Whipsawing. Made something twice off calls and once from puts, calling it a day. Happy 4th!
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Futures Green At night, Trader's delight... unless oops! LOL it's just nuts. Let it work out the lows and watch. Flipped some calls twice on bounces for SPY, QQQ, small potatoes.
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2 hrs into session and gap stubbornly persists. could stay down all day, who knows. tried for a gapfill twice no dice, closed for a push.
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NQ nearly filled at 10:41, maybe that was all we get. Grinding out a higher low atm. Watch, wait.
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Flipped calls twice today and came ahead but look at the chuckleheads EOD, gosh it's a short squeeze... hope you closed shorts, damned thing is up $9 from open!
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Damned thing follows my chart pretty well. Did not expect to go Green after gapfill but this rally got short legs IMO. CPI numbers again Weds 13 July 0830; probly gonna start tankin tues PM again, as we saw last time...
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Would NOT chase this short-covering rally, it's pure technical bounce with no real prospects for much higher imo. Tues looks like Fri, lol. Weds probly sell again...
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Flipping calls then puts back in cash. A chop day, whipping, directionless. Fed minutes at 2pm may provide guidance.
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Wild swings...
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Nutty. Pump on bad news. How many times we seen this setup? Sigh...
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Shorted the pump. Holding ten QQQ put spreads. Tank tomorrow, the Fed pattern.
Fed Pattern: 2PM initial dump; 2:30pm stupid spike, then rocket for an hour, fade into close, dump next day.
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Another lousy trade. Out and done. Bad news is good again, ffs.
Gutt is telling me the weekly gap down on the ES won't be filled for a while. The lack of wicks on Friday and then Sunday/Monday is what gives me pause about it filling and instead its the warning of what's to come. IMO we may see a retrace to 3830-3880 unless macro changes.
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ES is up now so could be a rally green day tomorrow with JP speech? I read around and some believe the bottom is this week or next week. It is so hard to pull trigger on buying dips as the major think the bottom is not yet though
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@option2022, I am not buying this dip at all but looking to sell it...IMO the charts have broken down which is why I don't see a gap fill but instead a small retrace. Again, that is my gutt because we have now closed two days below 20% and the lack of wicks on Friday & Monday. To me that tells us there are no real buyers. This downtrend has been very managed...no capitulation at this point. Cash vix also has a gap to fill at 45.20. Anything can happen of course but that is my read of the charts.
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@happyCloud1537, Thumbs Up!
DaddySawbucks
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Just a note on trading: This is trading. Taking small pos and managing risk you make small gains but when you plunge into huge lots you get killed rdq. Buy a few of these, sell a few of those, build a core position. A few years back was a meme on a guy who built 1M account in FB calls on ERs. Every three months he rolled his whole account into weekly FB calls before the ERs. Worked great until the first bad ER. Burned 990k instantly. Don't do it! been there, done that, lol. My worst day ever: -78k, not ashamed to admit it, I learned from it. We will all do this at least once.
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@DaddySawbucks, OUCH -- 78K....That is staggering..... I Shorted 200 FB and 200 Paypal -- before last month's earnings..Both gapped up - FB up 30+ points and PayP up 10 points ....huge surprises or reliefs rallies --- who knew ---I am very very leery about straight shorts now ...only options or put spreads... Yes, you never forget those...
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@CapeAfrican, took awhile to win it back. lesson worth evry penny
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@DaddySawbucks, My worst day... I was trading Futures, was UP $4000... but I'd had this 11,000 day right, so I felt like that was chump change. I waited and it started to backtrack. Kept telling myself I'd hop out if it got ______, never did. Took that thing BACKWARDS into the negative that day, and then ended up negative $6000 over 2 weeks. So for 2 Weeks I didn't make a trade to make any money either. Changed my entire mindset on trading. No longer trying to "get rich". I just want to keep paying the bills and working for myself. Now I shoot for $500 a day. Anything past, is just bonus, or I put into a vacation bank. Never forgot that stupidity. Never again.
DaddySawbucks
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@dhryan44, the future's uncertain and the end is always near
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I'd think the leg down might begin Wednesday or late Tuesday due to the GDP data coming out
the warning of what's to come. IMO we may see a retrace to 3830-3880 unless macro changes.