"The Bull Market is back!" Say the TV talking heads. But in spite of the tech runup, small caps remain stagnant and 40% of stonks still trade below their 200 DMA.
So, the 'bullishness' is limited to the glamour go-go issues. NVDA, MSFT, AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, GOOG META... etc etc all go higher, while the rest languish.
That ain't a bull market, it's a Bear Market Rally. And now we go VIX squeezed back down under 16, the flag is nearly unfurled imo.
P/C and bear sentiment crushed to lows not seen since Jan 2022. Everyone thinks it's going higher, that's when it rolls over.
Double-double top; beware of drop. Y2K meltdown took two years. This one probly be about the same.
When you think it's over, think again. Bear ain't over until all hope is lost and greed crushed. Get ready.
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Yeah bear shares got melted. Only bright spot was the covered calls I sold defrayed the drawdown. Out for now, sorry!
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Yeah it was relief rally off debt deal. Unexpectedly bullish for DJI, RUT. Notice relative weakness in NQ... tapped out? We will see.
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Loaded up bear shares with SPX trading near 4300. EOD sell came as pleasant surprise to shorts.
Had to scramble to cover calls I wrote on the ETFs. Holding SPXS SDOW SQQQ TZA.
Look for a PINBAR Tuesday. IF we get it, that's a clear sell signal.
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closed shorts in am weakness ofc now it bulls, btfd! no pinbar 2day eh?
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well look what the algos did. RTY +5% in 2 days, NQ tanked... they took money from other indexes to pump RUT. go figure. banked a bit off a few putskis today. more econoreports thurs am could be an excuse to bull again. who knows. all risk little reward up here.
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4293 on the bounce. looks toppy. sector rotation is bewildering, look at RUT...evry penny taken from NQ went into RTY...how long will it last until the house of cards tumbles?!
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Again at 4293 EOD... fading... shorted SPY, QQQ at 429, 353.
Trade closed: stop reached
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fooled agin
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Probly stopped out at the top, pretty standard
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Has now 'topped' 3x in past week. Patterns...useless. Indicators...worthless. Goes overbought, then more so.
Probably will end badly, but could be a long wait until then.
Shorts seem imprudent at this juncture. Chasing it, more so. Staying out.
Whatever you do, buddy, you'll be wrong most of the time. The moment you reveal your intention, it's done, the market will turn against you. The only strategy to win in the long run is to be patient and not bet on falling prices. If prices do fall, you should never cash in your losses, just sit it out.
dannyayala69
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The market is going up and the fed saying inflation is going down a a tool they can control yet gas food and rent mortgages are more expensive then ever before yet people will get stuff adding so the rich get out and you the average becomes a exit sheep
nsooley
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Clearly don't understand how to use Elliot Wave Correction pattern. RSI still above 50. Debt Ceiling increased. For the foreseeable future we will not see sub 3800 again let alone a random target of 3100...
DaddySawbucks
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@nsooley, you do not know what the future holds. wait and see what is to see, lol. could easily be down 1k by October
mjcpaull
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The call is correct - timing slightly out - I'm going to position some shorts next week - target 3250 by September... might seem 4300 handles on the market but you can't expect to catch the tops and bottoms - just > 65% of the overall move....
DaddySawbucks
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@mjcpaull, yes perfect timing is impossible. could see a modest pullback to ~420 then another pop, flag can still fly higher
Autumn8
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I so stupid to believe in this false analysis
DaddySawbucks
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@Autumn8, sorry if you lost if is any consolation I got burned as well, sigh... closed it out