hehe
Short

SPX Reverse Symmetrical Triangle

INDEX:SPX   S&P 500 Index
2472 3 4
Elliott Wave Theory. November will be a very important month for U.S. indexes. Theoretically, the SPX             has levels of 1492, 1594 within the next move. But ... maybe that's enough??

http://www.thepatternsite.com/EWRevSymmetrical.html
awesome chart, it lines up perfectly with a chart I had posted on another site a few weeks ago
http://s8.postimage.org/mblcmy7p1/SPX_3_Month_9_1990_12_2012.jpg
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The historical presidential election pattern is in line with your assumptions:
The stock market and US president cycle

However my Elliot Wave counting there should be even more room to grow:
Market Prediction 2009-2014? (part 3)

As always appears the truth is somewhere in the middle
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whats the best way to play upcoming bearmarket? long volatility? or just short individual stocks? i've started scaling into long term OTM puts on individual stocks here. dont want to miss the train. lol.
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