DaddySawbucks
Short

SPX Bearish Nenstar (Shark) completing at 3047-3060

TVC:SPX   S&P 500 Index
Bearish Nenstar harmonic , cousin to shark , cypher , bat/ butterfly patterns; a Gartley variant. Typically the selloff from pattern completion at D is a .50 retracement of the CD leg up. In this case, price would be expected to drop ~150 pips to close the gap at 2864.

Nenstar and Cypher patterns are variants of Sharks. Basic form: C is lower than A. In Bearish Butterflies & Gartleys, C is higher than A.

Sharks: Nenstar D is higher than X, Cypher D is lower than X. All variants of the same theme = 'W' pattern leading to price correction.
Nice examples here: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/...

NB: Final move C-D in Nenstar may extend to 1.272 - 2.00 of A-B. In this case, 147 pips for AB x 2.00 = 3060, maximum pattern height.

This is just an idea and in no way constitutes investment advice; GLTA!!

Trade active: Entered positions in SPY @ 300, QQQ @230, IWM @ 140, DIA @255 in June puts; short Friday's expiring dailies in $5 bear spreads. GLTA!!

And holding FB Jun puts @ 222.5 in $5 bear spread against Fri 217.5P.
Comment: Price rises to the target zone in choppy volatile trade; VIX also rising. Bearish IMO
Trade active: Going whole hog; added 5 spreads to each position now in 110 bear spreads. Shark will bite very soon IMO.

Pushback in early trade from 3050. Divergence in DJT and RUT, warning signs.
Scarce volume. Break imminent IMO
Comment: Adjusted: Rolled the FB spread up to 225 strike and rolled the short leg down to 05 Jun 212.5 for net debit of 0.10c.
Comment: Major indices forming rising wedges intraday. Bear Flags IMO
Trade active: This is the nailbiting teeth gritting cliff hanger moment when it looks so G-D'd Bullish u feel "FFS I MIGHT BE WRONG!"

But indicators are Bearish, volume not confirm price, all the news is grim, the irrational exuberance will break soon IMO.

Made out like a bandit on the short legs, sold contracts for 88c in the AM and covered for a dime. Still looking at drawdown but IWM position is green. Rolled weeklies down $2 and out to 5 Jun.

Shorting is really tough when you get into this position it takes steel nerves to hold on. NOT letting the bulls shake me loose this time!
Comment: Increasng divergence in DJT, RUT as the rally weakens. IWM puts jumping...
Comment: Got a helluva shooting star on the day in DJI, NQ; SPX holding up EOD. The Nenstar sells.
Trade closed manually: Taking risk off over weekend ! made out like bandit on these positions, take what the market gives you!! GLTA!!
Comment: 3140 is the 0.786 retracement; we might see it IMO
Trade active: Opening gap on 6/01 filled as expected, re-entering short positions on the gapfill rally; in June 30 puts in bear spreads vs. 5 Jun weeklies on:
QQQ 233
SPY 304
DIA 255
IWM 140
FB 230

Short legs spread various strikes bewteen $8-10 OTM; opening with 6 contracts in each spread
Comment: Increased pos to 10 contracts in each spread; there's a clear 5-wave EW intraday formed. OFC it can get higher; these pos are all hedged spreads.
Trade active: Another monster wedge forming intraday... testing the 3060 top as expected. Adding to shorts, rolled up the short legs on SPY for nice day trade, now in 03 Jun 302P.
Comment: Took another nice day gain off the FB short legs rolled 220s up to 222.5s, Friday weeklies. Added 5 spreads.
Comment: Added 5 bear spreads on QQQ Jul10 233P v Jun05 227P
Trade active: Double topped IMO, nominal slightly higher top on 6/02. Legged out and back in on the above positions, rolled up to next higher strikes in each. Took nice gains on the short legs, rolled those down and out.
Comment: Heavy short here on the intraday double top at weekly double top... rollover imminent IMO

Short: DIA SPY QQQ IWM FB
Trade active: Yeah it's damage control now. Rolled the short legs up for gain to cut drawdown on long legs in half. Rolled up the strikes on long legs; gaps will fill. Madness IMO; caught in a Bear Trap!
Comment: Look out for short covering forced liquidation rally extension at 1400 EST, when brokers dump unmet margin calls at market.
Comment: Rolled the short legs up still in Friday expiratoin, $2 spreads now in case forced liquidations and short covering EOD drives NQ back to ATH... expect SPX, DJI to get the 0.786 Fib by Friday.
Comment: Yep here's the 2PM pop right on schedule!
Comment: My goodness! Such FOMO! What MOMO! Holding short and rolling the short legs again, lol. Hedged with calls at noon which did rather nicely. Will hold those overnight!
Comment: NB: short squeeze pressure is diminished as most of the weak hands have been forced out over the past 2 weeks, especially in past 2 sessions, there was a nice EOD squeeze on Tues and again Weds, not quite as fierce. By Friday most forced liquidations will have been executed by brokers.

The subsequent free fall when smart money distributes their shares will be most impressive, a vertical selloff, no short stops to take out.
Comment: NQ 100 reached ATH on 3 Jun, FAANG MOMO speculation, up 6%.
Trade active: Decisive pushback from 0.786 Fibo. Rejected 6/04 below 6/03 high (3131). Confirm trend change on Friday IMO

Added to shorts in QQQ IWM DIA SPY FB
Comment: Rejecting!
Trade closed manually: Idea invalidated by current events, closed out all on stop!

Comments

It will inevitably collapse like it did before. It looks like a massive, rapid bear market rally against a background of a deteriorating economy (and republic). So much damage and loss of life from Corona and the riots. It's difficult to believe all of that is priced into the market and that the fundamentals really support the markets at these levels.
+1 Reply
ProfitHarvest Trader865x
@Trader865x, Word
Reply
Trader865x ProfitHarvest
@ProfitHarvest, What does that mean?
Reply
DaddySawbucks Trader865x
@Trader865x, Vernacular for "I agree dude, totally!" = > Word
+1 Reply
Full moon 05 June at 1512 hrs; will it bull to the moon?! Seems silly but lunar cycles often coincide with trend waves, up 2 weeks now...
+1 Reply
ProfitHarvest DaddySawbucks
@DaddySawbucks, Curious to learn more about your Astrological trading strat! Fringe strategies are fun.
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DaddySawbucks ProfitHarvest
@ProfitHarvest, Lunar theory is totally unreliable, but by coincidence occasionally the moon cycle aligns with weekly price moves.
+1 Reply
ProfitHarvest DaddySawbucks
@DaddySawbucks, Broken clock is always right twice a day!
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Your analysis might finally be right. There is also a noticeable decline in volume (indices and some stocks) on this last leg up. HD (Home Depot) & LOW (Lowes) are 2 relevant examples that appear to be setting up to decline.
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DaddySawbucks Trader865x
@Trader865x, Well, faint praise is better than none at all, lol! Ty for comment and insight. These harmonic patterns are by no means accurate predictors of price action, you have to use all the tools in your kit, these do give a 'suggestion' that change could be coming, but that's about all! GLTA!

Volume is low and does not confirm price action; it looks and feels like a bursting bubble; most gains are in MOMO favorites, broader market struggles.

RSI has entered overbought again and MFI is low, smart money is not buying here... see my note on short covering, the forced liquidations of shorts closes out stoploss orders, so the next sharp decline will trigger waterfall cascade again, no shorts to cover, hence a vertical drop soon IMO.
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