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wolfah
Feb 17, 2018 11:35 AM

SPX prob. in wave 4 Long

S&P 500SP

Description

SPX, currently and probably in a wave 4c. The whole pattern of this abc correction could be a "Expanded Triangle" or a "Expanded Flat" (Target in both cases could be for wave b $3000). So far, wave b is still in its first leg , with a "Extension1" as first wave at the beginning. Remember, the following wave 3 can never be the shortest wave! That's why, I suppose, we are in a wave 4 right now (with the topping wave 3 at 0,618 of the whole correction) and which will build up above the blue support-line. This support will probably be retested! The red lines are possible neck-lines.
On a 1min scale you can see the 4c as an impulse wave. There, SPX is about to finish a wave 3.

Comment

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See pikture on a 1min scale

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See picture on 1min timeframe only: If 4c would be a "Diagonal 1" with a ABC pattern in each leg 1-3-5 and (!) there would be overlapping of wave 2 with wave 4, it would confirm the end of this little correction (wave 4)!

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BTW, on a 1h scale 0,236 would be 2728 (already hit) and 0,382 would be 2710 for wave 4.
Comments
JohnBaron
good work, where do u see C of 4 terminating?
wolfah
@JohnBaron, thank you for your compliment and your interest and sorry for the delay! The Stoch-Indicator is very oversold on a 1min scale. The stoch on the 1h scale is below its Trigger and descending. There are 2 possible scenarios for the next trading session (Tuesday):

#1: Friday's CLOSE (2732) is the end of wave 3 of 4c. (Assumption that the daily CLOSE often marks the end of a wave or pattern, which were going on during the day). If the opening is positive >2734-2736, this would give us a first indication of an ongoing "Diagonal1"-pattern, because wave 1 and wave 4 are only allowed to overlap in a "Diagonal". A probable target for wave 4c could then be 2729 or slightly below.

#2: Friday's CLOSE is not the end of wave 3 and the SPX falls further. Next resistance then would be the red Neckline at 2719 or the blue-dotted supportline at 2710, coming from the top. This, or slightly below, would then be the end of wave 4c.
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