I feel as if the drop may have ended today (Friday). We shall see. By the way, the price action for the SP 500 perfectly touched that ascending neck line of this possible head and shoulders, before dropping. Things that make you go hmmmm. Lastly, I was just not that impressed with the Vix and Tvix move. Kind of weak...is that telling us something?
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a closer look. Just keep this idea in mind...just in case it comes true
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I guess I should also throw out there are more bearish idea. You may have already seen this idea. Its definitely something that should be considered being that I really believe that the global elites and bankers and corrupt politicians want Trump to not get re-elected.....but the blue arrows is the bearish idea for an expanding triangle where a bottom could be reached just prior to the next election. so lets take a look.
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BUT...until this uptrend line is broken, then this drop IMO cant be considered bearish yet...GL
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This is how I am leaning right now. I do need more information but I am leaning this way with a large 3 wave move that should continue down.
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Still trucking along here. I put in the path I think price will follow this week. I think we are making a small 5 wave structure for the C wave up. Currently in the 4th wave of that 5 wave structure. I am wondering if the Fed is not going to cut interest rates in September and if that will be the catalyst to make this last push lower to occur. It seems unlikely that price will grind higher and hold off until the Fed meeting on the 18th. But something is coming. It is almost as if the structure and patterns in wave analysis can predict an unknown future. Good or bad without specifics. Only that something is approaching.
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daily chart
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Price has been moving higher than I thought. So I am thinking that the inverse head and shoulders can still be viable but pushed back to maybe December. However, I am leaning more towards this wave count. The Fed wont cut enough and then the market will fall. But this may not be the big move for TVIX yet. If the SP500 drops to where I think it will then TVIX will probably run 80% - 90% ...very good gains but not the big stuff I was looking for. Keep this wave count in mind.. Price has gone up so high that I no longer think we are moving down to the .618% retrace yet. That's my opinion at this point. I actually like this better. Give me 80+% over the next two weeks and then 200% later in the year...Ill take it.
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Almost there...any day now. probably this week. This is just my opinion. If I am correct, then price cannot move beyond 100% of wave 3 at 3158. AND, it shouldn't continue past the 24th or 25th. The 25th is exactly the number of days the it took wave 3 to top.
The question is whats next if I am correct.?
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Best case scenario we are nothing but bullish and will not stop. Its possibe but the extreme oversold in TVIX, the huge divergence for the market especially on the weekly, and the cycles suggest a move down .. So I would say that this is an ending diagnol, and I still feel that way. If this is a beginging diagnol for the wave 5 of the larger red count (see next post to understand the red count), then we should at least drop to .618% os this entire move from the begingin of 2019. See blue arrows for possible price movement for a begining diagnol
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But if I am correct, then something it going to trigger the red count to end its wave 5. That would mean the end of wave 3 and the start of wave 4 of the larger and final blue count. Since the blue count wave 2 was a short retracement, then wave 4 for this blue count should be deep and look something like the red arrows. Oh, lets not neglect the larger cycles. that ends in mid 2022. Lets wait and see what happenes.
Best case scenario we are nothing but bullish and will not stop. Its possibe but the extreme oversold in TVIX, the huge divergence for the market especially on the weekly, and the cycles suggest a move down .. So I would say that this is an ending diagnol, and I still feel that way. If this is a beginging diagnol for the wave 5 of the larger red count (see next post to understand the red count), then we should at least drop to .618% os this entire move from the begingin of 2019.
@SalN Thanks for your new post. I am not good at this wave count, but I do think this will be around 15% or more drop after Sep FOMC till Oct, then big rebound till Xmas. I do study the pattern of 2007.10 and 2015.07,they are not 100% match, but cound be the same range this time again.
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@SalN Hi Buddy, new plan is working really great. We will see how is going next month, I think it will start to drop after FOMC,still small green for SEP.
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@SalN I have the same plan with your new post... it's hard to drop new low this month... and we will have about one month volatility wave which from 2940-2960...and after 18th SEP it will drop again till OCT or NOV. Aug is red for sure, small Green of SEP and Bloody Oct or NOV. This plan do look like the pattern of NOV DEC in 2007. Thanks for sharing...
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@SalN really nice post. I do think there are small or big rebound coming next week, then it will continue to drop around 2800 range. It's really hard to back up to ATH range this month... and Oct or Nov could test ATH range. That's my view of last week. Keep posting, thanks