Hey everyone,
Welcome to my first published analysis on TradingView! I'm going to put this out there right now that I am a noob when it comes to trading and investing, which is why I decided to do an analysis on the S&P 500. Common sense would say that there's really only one direction this thing is going over the next few years and that is down. WIth that being said, let's check out my chart.
As you can see on the weekly graph, we've been parabolically moving up since 2011, especially since 2016. Some may say that the log graph doesn't look too bad but let's face it, this thing has been on a tear since the last recession back in 2008-2009, and we're in need for a good correction.
The beautiful thing about the price action over the past 10 yrs is that it appears to have followed Elliot Wave theory quite nicely. I can imagine individuals looking at a long-term view of this chart could have made a decent amount of money over the past 10 yrs by using EW. So what is EW telling us now? It's saying that Wave 5 is done (or close to being done) and that we are now getting ready for a correction, which usually comes in an ABC formation. I've placed this on the chart to show you what I'm hypothesizing this will do. Now, I will say that I am not certain on how far down wave C will go because that depends on how far wave A will go as well as other factors. Therefore, I inserted a large green box on where I would start to dollar-cost average for the long-term (next 10 years). Additionally, please ignore the time frame. I can't tell you how long this thing will take.
Elliot Wave is useful, but I also like to use other indicators to confirm my hypotheses. To do this, I'm using the 50, 100, and 200 EMA's, which are the blue, yellow, and red, respectively. As you can see from the previous crashes, further downside was indicated when the blue line crossed the yellow line and could not get back above both lines. Therefore, I would say that my downside hypothesis will be validated once this occurs.
As a trader, I always like to have both a bullish and bearish view as it keeps me nimble when things change and my hypothesis ends up being wrong. Therefore, my hypothesis will be INVALIDATED once we break above new highs with conviction, and find support.
Thanks for reading this and let me know your thoughts!
*This is not financial advice. This is for educational purposes only. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell.
Welcome to my first published analysis on TradingView! I'm going to put this out there right now that I am a noob when it comes to trading and investing, which is why I decided to do an analysis on the S&P 500. Common sense would say that there's really only one direction this thing is going over the next few years and that is down. WIth that being said, let's check out my chart.
As you can see on the weekly graph, we've been parabolically moving up since 2011, especially since 2016. Some may say that the log graph doesn't look too bad but let's face it, this thing has been on a tear since the last recession back in 2008-2009, and we're in need for a good correction.
The beautiful thing about the price action over the past 10 yrs is that it appears to have followed Elliot Wave theory quite nicely. I can imagine individuals looking at a long-term view of this chart could have made a decent amount of money over the past 10 yrs by using EW. So what is EW telling us now? It's saying that Wave 5 is done (or close to being done) and that we are now getting ready for a correction, which usually comes in an ABC formation. I've placed this on the chart to show you what I'm hypothesizing this will do. Now, I will say that I am not certain on how far down wave C will go because that depends on how far wave A will go as well as other factors. Therefore, I inserted a large green box on where I would start to dollar-cost average for the long-term (next 10 years). Additionally, please ignore the time frame. I can't tell you how long this thing will take.
Elliot Wave is useful, but I also like to use other indicators to confirm my hypotheses. To do this, I'm using the 50, 100, and 200 EMA's, which are the blue, yellow, and red, respectively. As you can see from the previous crashes, further downside was indicated when the blue line crossed the yellow line and could not get back above both lines. Therefore, I would say that my downside hypothesis will be validated once this occurs.
As a trader, I always like to have both a bullish and bearish view as it keeps me nimble when things change and my hypothesis ends up being wrong. Therefore, my hypothesis will be INVALIDATED once we break above new highs with conviction, and find support.
Thanks for reading this and let me know your thoughts!
*This is not financial advice. This is for educational purposes only. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell.