Madrid

HEADING TO 1.618 FIBONACCI LEVEL

INDEX:SPX   S&P 500 Index
274 3 2
Another all time high for the SPX             . Those are the good news, but the market is extremely sensitive at these levels because any minor 'correction' triggers a defensive response. We saw last month how the VIX             jumped to its 0.236 Fib. Resistance level as soon as the SPX             had a hiccup. After the fast trend in the SPX             we were not even close to a correction, the fastest moving averages never crossed and barely showed a sign of weakness, and it was enough for the market to overreact.
However, somehow the market knows it's arriving to a historic top, and after calculating the Fibonacci level from the time it hit the previous all time high in July 2011, it is close to the 1.618 Level, where a hiccup can turn into a major correction. At those levels we can expect a retracement initially to the 1800 level, and probably a lot of swings within that range.
The VIX             is doing a descending triangle (on the average trend lines) that can anytime easily jump just like it did last October. If this breaks out to the upside, I don't want to imagine how highly emotional and bloody the market will be. I want to believe that the Feds and the big boys have already forecasted this scenario and even though this fall from the 1.618 level is more than unavoidable at least they are preparing the parachute so the fall will be more like a choppy fall rather than a free fall, but this is just wishful thinking. Media will have to find a lot more excuses than Ebola, Ukraine or Isis             to justify why the market did a retracement (they always find something assuming the market doesn't have memory).
Don't forget that 2016 will be a presidential election year, and I don't know if the people who control the economy are playing to hold this as much as possible to avoid the bubble burst before the elections, pretty much what happened to Bush.

Note: This chart complements the recently published chart where I made the analysis of the VIX             .
asf
2 years ago
What is the full name of the MTT study you are using? And is the code public?
Thanks!
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Madrid PRO asf
2 years ago
This study is not public yet, It is an indicator I am developing and it is in Beta phase (pre-produciion) Once I'll have evaluated it under different scenarios and I'll have it fine tuned, I will release it to the public library. I name it "Madrid Trend Trading", the M differentiates it from the other indicators so I know it is part of the library I am developing.
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Madrid PRO asf
2 years ago
Same deal with the MOBOS (Madrid OverBought/OverSold) and the MTS (Madrid Trend Strength)
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