Another all time high for the SPX. Those are the good news, but the market is extremely sensitive at these levels because any minor 'correction' triggers a defensive response. We saw last month how the VIX jumped to its 0.236 Fib. Resistance level as soon as the SPX had a hiccup. After the fast trend in the SPX we were not even close to a correction, the fastest moving averages never crossed and barely showed a sign of weakness, and it was enough for the market to overreact.
However, somehow the market knows it's arriving to a historic top, and after calculating the Fibonacci level from the time it hit the previous all time high in July 2011, it is close to the 1.618 Level, where a hiccup can turn into a major correction. At those levels we can expect a retracement initially to the 1800 level, and probably a lot of swings within that range.
The VIX is doing a descending triangle (on the average trend lines) that can anytime easily jump just like it did last October. If this breaks out to the upside, I don't want to imagine how highly emotional and bloody the market will be. I want to believe that the Feds and the big boys have already forecasted this scenario and even though this fall from the 1.618 level is more than unavoidable at least they are preparing the parachute so the fall will be more like a choppy fall rather than a free fall, but this is just wishful thinking. Media will have to find a lot more excuses than Ebola, Ukraine or Isis to justify why the market did a retracement (they always find something assuming the market doesn't have memory).
Don't forget that 2016 will be a presidential election year, and I don't know if the people who control the economy are playing to hold this as much as possible to avoid the bubble burst before the elections, pretty much what happened to Bush.
Note: This chart complements the recently published chart where I made the analysis of the VIX.
However, somehow the market knows it's arriving to a historic top, and after calculating the Fibonacci level from the time it hit the previous all time high in July 2011, it is close to the 1.618 Level, where a hiccup can turn into a major correction. At those levels we can expect a retracement initially to the 1800 level, and probably a lot of swings within that range.
The VIX is doing a descending triangle (on the average trend lines) that can anytime easily jump just like it did last October. If this breaks out to the upside, I don't want to imagine how highly emotional and bloody the market will be. I want to believe that the Feds and the big boys have already forecasted this scenario and even though this fall from the 1.618 level is more than unavoidable at least they are preparing the parachute so the fall will be more like a choppy fall rather than a free fall, but this is just wishful thinking. Media will have to find a lot more excuses than Ebola, Ukraine or Isis to justify why the market did a retracement (they always find something assuming the market doesn't have memory).
Don't forget that 2016 will be a presidential election year, and I don't know if the people who control the economy are playing to hold this as much as possible to avoid the bubble burst before the elections, pretty much what happened to Bush.
Note: This chart complements the recently published chart where I made the analysis of the VIX.
