Just taking a look at the SPX, it is interesting to see the curvature of this market. As seen on this chart, we can see clearly the periods of time where and when the bears and bulls were in control.
Lately all I hear is that the market is going to crash, which is the reason I decided to look at the SPX in the first place. My conclusion is that it is not going to crash but do the opposite. Take a look throughout the SPX history and the RSI. It is crystal clear that this market has just broke through a resistance line and is still climbing. The comparisons between the bull/bear markets of the past says that this current trend isn't going down anytime soon.
I totally agree. This is also in line with fractals, where the years between 1929 to 1949 show a strong similarity to 2000-2012. This time a bit faster, but this bullrun now could indeed just continue until around 2030, very similar to the bullrun from 1949 to 1973. The yearly megacycles clearly favor a bullrun above a crash.
Too many people calling "crash", then of course the exact opposite happens lol.
Only if no one thinks that a crash is possible any more, then the crash will come :)
keifer
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@FlaviusTodorius67, Isn't that the truth, the idea is to go against the masses. I see the market will cycle through these 2 following stages.
1) When chicken little cries that the sky is falling, then we have nothing to worry about. If chicken little crosses the road to spread the word and gets hit by a car we will have lost our indicator.
2) Next we will hear the boy who cried wolf, we will start paying attention to the kid and look into it. Next time we hear the kid we will call bullshit and if we do that, we will have made a mistake. LOL
jacobit
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Your 'bull' from '84 to '01 is off. The curve is contracting; lesss years between bear / bull markets. I believe that would place the bear market, perhaps, at the high of this RSI as the contraction continues?
keifer
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@JacobBernard, Your right I missed that.
keifer
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@JacobBernard, I wanted to correct that and move it back a year, however for some stupid reason. TV won't let me look at the chart. I have to pay money for it.
I took a snap shot of this, I will post it here. Hopefully it will show or the link will open the PNG.
i.imgflip.com/2zfzq9.jpg
Teklologist
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Nice chart. I’d argue it depicts an ending grand or super cycle Wave 4, Wave 2 being the Great Depression. If so then SPX should nearly touch support once more, similar to wave 2 in 1942, prior to kicking off wave 5. Again if true, you’d be correct calling bullish for long term, but there should be some significant short-term Bear action.
@Teklologist, I agree, I think we need more of a reset of the RSI. It looks pretty broke to me, on the monthly chart. I'd like to see a return to the 1800 range and then off we go.
Too many people calling "crash", then of course the exact opposite happens lol.
Only if no one thinks that a crash is possible any more, then the crash will come :)