Not sure if this is correct, but trends have shown a market crash after election of new US presidents haha. It has happened the last two major presidential elections in 2000 and 2008. I wonder if the market is set to crash around November, or is it a complete coincidence? I know there were other factors involved with the major market crashes but a contributing factor could be major uncertainty from a new leader in the US. Any thoughts?
Thank you again for your comment. Well, apparently the FED seemed very resolute to raise rates as early as next September meeting, and in any case in one of the three meetings before the year end. Obviously the uncertainty by the US elections could make this hike improbable, but the FED said the opposite: it announced that the possibility of impending economic crisis fell, but always possible, and that the inflation trend will be taken in assessing for a rate increase. In my view the FED will hike the rates before the year end, this could be an answer to your question (if the market crash in the election's month). You must consider the powerful of the central banks and their QE policy, that in 2000 and 2008 wasn't yet.
Take also a look at the last interview of Gundlach. “The artist Christopher Wool has a word painting, 'Sell the house, sell the car, sell the kids.' That’s exactly how I feel – sell everything. Nothing here looks good,” Gundlach said in a telephone interview. "The stock markets should be down massively but investors seem to have been hypnotized that nothing can go wrong."
Please remind yourself that this is just my personal view on the market. My analysis should NOT serve as any recommendation to buy or to sell.
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