S&P 500: Bearish RSI divergence remains intact despite new ATH

Price action looks like a stop loss raid of those who hedged against a pullback on Monday with a short position. Typically this leads to a sharp and fast move higher, followed by a sudden even stronger pullback at a later point in time.

I believe there is a turning point in the trend this week. That's why I doubled down on my bearish outlook.

Short entry: 2822 (ideally 2825)
Stop loss: 2836
Target: 2714

Trade active:

Short from 2824

Comment:

After slowly declining from a high at 2825.91 around 1pm EST, the S&P 500 made a very strong spike upwards and advanced including the very last minute of cash trading. Thereby the S&P 500 closed at the very high of the day at 2833.03.

15min

1min

It's getting harder and harder to forecast any turning points. Which is why I raise my stop loss from 2836 to 2843.5

Comment:

Once there is finally a pullback (ideally to at least 2769-2767), I will close the short during that pullback, if it does not get stopped out at 2842.5 (this is the newer stop loss I had shared in my last update of my short idea yesterday, as seen above).

I did a lot of analysis today and changed my mind that the rally could actually sustain to go much higher to at least 2960 (after that potential pullback).

Trade closed: stop reached:

Stopped out at the open on Wednesday. The S&P 500 gapped up and opened higher yet again at 2845.42, currently trading with a high of 2852.97.

At least I was emotionally prepared to get stopped out today after Tuesday didn't trade weak enough to close the short at break even, that's why I shared this bullish chart yesterday:

Maybe Wednesday is going to be the peak for the week and I was just two days to early with starting to go short, but moving up the stop loss higher and higher every day is a losers game. I was wrong and moving the stop loss up by 7 points was already a mistake in hindsight.

Comment:

The S&P 500 is finally cooling off. If I hadn't been stopped out with the gap up today, I would have closed my short from 2824 here at 2826