elephantsrevenge

SPX bull market inflection point

SP:SPX   S&P 500 Index
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SPX             looks set for a possible retest of major trend lines around 1950. Failure here likely results in the end of the bull run, regardless of any subsequent bounce. This is why the Oct '14 low was so key. The upsloping light blue lines cannot be violated to the downside, just as the the upsloping bright green lines could not be violated in the 90's bull run. A successful defense of 1950 short term coupled with a clean breakout above the top red line sets the stage for a possible late stage "euphoria" rally to the top blue line around 2700. This red line is a major trend line from 1984 and it served as the top in 2007 and launching point of the major rally in 1998-99. The market has been indecisive the last few months as it tries to decide if it will breakout into a euphoric rally or reject the long term trend line and commence a new bear market. Bias is towards bullish breakout with possible short-term retest of red line around 2030, orange line around 2012, or green line around 1950.
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