Overlay is QQQ from correction of late 2018. Looking for massive pumps in the upcoming days to get this thing to fill gaps overhead. Situation very similar to November 2018 FOMC. At that time Fed held rates steady (as had been the expectation) and Powell tried to calm the market down... it last for about a day before making new lows 2 weeks later.
I'm expecting history to repeat itself. The CPI report was actually somewhat low-key bullish showing disinflation in several categories, so expect the Fed to talk about data dependency and patience while doing the .25% hike as markets expect. With the rug pull scenario off the table, it's possible the market rallies on the news. But just like the market bought the news on the invasion... This IMO should be a sell the news event.
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Sold off initially on rates expecting to be above neutral but of course in a surprise to no one papa powell strokes the bulls hard once more... Trap is now set for the all the hanger-ons to pile into the momentum trade here in the coming days, but as soon as we get this diagonal painted this thing should turn around quick.
I thought I was the only one thinking like that. I started buying some eminis Friday afternoon in hopes for rally late in the day Friday that would carry into Monday and Tuesday but it seems I bought too early
chinawildman
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@Dannyc617, SPX uptrend on life support right now so I doubt it falls out of this channel prior to FOMC on no catalysts... if it does I'd be pretty worried about the coming 2 months.
Dannyc617
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@chinawildman I almost feel like it will take out all the buy side liquidity above the recent swing high and above the 10% correction. Especially since it made a run at it Friday morning but fell just shy of touching it..
chinawildman
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@Dannyc617, Yea but given that it's a significant resistance level, there are a lot of stops for shorts above it as well. An overnight gap up will probably trigger enough of a squeeze to last a day.