Hi, I am trying to figure out how to value SPX in terms of M2, but cannot seem to figure out how to get the chart right. Could you tell me how you were able to get the blue "SPX over M2" line? Thanks!
Marek99
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Interesting, in real terms SPX broke the resistance line
Marek99
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@Marek99, just to point it out in real terms, value, bubble, assets,... in true value, today, spx has the same value as in 1996, 2003, 2006, 2008 & 2015!
timwest
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I would very much like to understand how you analyze and interpret this chart.
Marek99
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still working on, that, I think in terms of "real value". Most people apply their knowledge of economy to the existing prices, but I never heard anyone talk of the money supply adjustment. If you dilute anything, it becomes less strong, i.e. a chemical solution dilution results in weaker "strength" of the solution.
M2 being what it is, in order to continue dilution a major event has to occur, I mean you can't issue more M2 then previously, eventually you reach a peak, and a course is reversed, or a reset occurs, normally that is. In this case, I suspect a major event is going to take place soon.
US can not loose its status as a world police force without a fight.
Russsia is now in an open economic war with US
China is the "median" which seeks to strengthen itself by playing both sides, with strong resentment towards US.
Population growth is in a decline, according to current models, globally we have peaked.
Prosperity, is a means of birth rate control.
Global IQ is in a decline.
Most antibiotics now contain Aluminum 30 and other nasty elements. Its harder and harder to get clean medicine
Food quality is in decline
Fukushima can't be controlled, and will go on, until A) we find the technology (not likely in near future, 50+ years) B) The end of earth. Loosing any hair Tim?
I love science, but this economic science I am having hard time accepting in its current state. As if some peace is missing. I'v spent too much time on this already, gotta focus now on my algos.. $$$
Thanks for your ideas Tim, what do you think?
G13Man
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@Marek99, , i find it interesting the soviets died , giving up life in their melted nuke plant to save nation and planet, but the suicide bonzi Japanese have failed ,
Marek99
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Here's a cumulative snapshot of DOW + Nasdaq + S&P over M2, and in terms of m2+stocks over GOLD........
interesting to say the least.
TASAVANT
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Add the CBOE SKEW Index
Marek99
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the SKEW index only begins in Mar of 2011, so that's a no go.
It seems it does not matter how you adjust other data, the true value line for SPX right now is that of 1998-2000 line, pre dot com bubble. Funny how people do push that idea around.... I wonder where they got that from???