S&P 500 (SPX) (March 2022)
In my last few SPX and ES (futures) charts, I was expecting a major peak by late 2021 at one of 4 (or /5) potential all time high points
"High: 4,916 points"
&
"Future retracement highs: 4,640 points - 5,036 points - 5,281/5,298 points"
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
In my first major (January 2021) chart adjustment, I expected retraces at 3 key levels: 4,259 points, 4,546 points, and 4,916 points.
The first 2 of those targets were fulfilled but not exactly on the time frame I expected, just slightly delayed by 2 months for each target.
The 3rd target, 4,916 points, seemed to have the right idea to point where the official bear cycle (could) start, but I expected it by September/October 2021 and it doesn't look like it started until January 2022, about 3-4 months outside of my estimates.
I believe I was close with my fibonacci but not close enough as the 3rd target was never fully fulfilled completely. This chart's peak level looks to have been off by about 2.22%.
Perhaps these levels can still be reached but I believe we are about to regress even further before then.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
In my second major (March 2021) chart update, I expected multiple small reactions off fibonacci levels as indicated by my scribbles in green. I personally think this part went pretty well.
I expected somewhat of a continuation of the channel formation that I thought appeared since the election, that appears to have happened as well.
The things that didn't happen or didn't quite happen as I expected are as follows:
1) Major market reaction off 4,256 points level (2.618 fib) by July 2021, looks more like 4,550 points about 2 months behind.
2) A reaction and cycle ending near the 3.618 and 4.236/1.618 fibs around 5,036 points and 5,200-5,300 points, it appears to have peaked at 4,808 points 1 month behind the adjusted timeframe of December 2021.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Now that all of this is complete/close to the original target, timeframe, AND the channel has been broken, I am reconsidering new levels.
In the March 2021 chart, I was expecting a crash to 3,361 points. I believe this can still happen, but I also believe it can go further than this now that I am (attempting) to use elliott wave theory to confirm my original ideas.
At this moment I cannot say much for what type of corrective pattern we are in or will be in, but for now I will expect a 5-3-5 zigzag with a very high B wave. Not saying this is what it will be, but I want to see more of the pattern print and make even more fibonacci and elliott wave adjustments before I can fully say. This is just a guess for now, as always.
I honestly need to be able to spend a lot more time looking at this chart. Everything (that I think) I see seems very rudimentary and I definitely have not fully measured all waves to confirm if the wave count or type is even correct. The main issue I am seeing when attempting to go back through historical data is that the cycle degree scale is way too big for the maximum scale degrees we can use on this software, so it makes it intensely messy when you have multiple "supermillenium" scales. I will try to color code these and add a mini-legend about which extra magnitude of "supermillenium" that wave's color could be. So for now, please ignore all the bad/overlapping degree types. I have not spent much time confirming anything yet.
Seeing in the past as this market can move faster or slower than expected, its really a wildcard to attempt to perfectly "guess" the timeframe in which this crash will happen. Maybe once we see more movement, I can start to pick apart the waves even more.
To attempt to call some numbers, my new fibonacci plotting as of now indicates a 1.618 fib around 3,384 points, which is only 23 points higher than my last chart was calling for. Perhaps this could happen anywhere from now to June 2022. I expect more "blood" this month and next for sure.
After this, depending on what some other markets could do, I think a retrace (B wave) could end near 4,200 to 4,500 points by Sept/Oct 2022 (again.)
The wave down could be really hard to predict correctly right now so I have included multiple ideas and possibilities for now. I think it could get really crazy but I'm not sure.
A crash to 2,498 points is my best guess, by either August 2022 or August 2023. There is even a smaller possibility that the S&P 500 index falls as low as 1,062-1,642 points. If stocks somehow do better than I am expecting, then I really only expect a crash to either 2,998 points, 3,386 points, or only 3,935 points.
I believe this is the bear market at last.
Please take everything here with a grain of salt, I am still learning as much as I can!
Previous charts I've built coming to these conclusions:
(Additional chart that was not quite as accurate as the above 2 but links to more ideas)
Thanks for tuning in :) Disclaimer, anyone in the trade needs to do their own due diligence and decide what is right for YOU. My charts can be wrong at any time and it's very important that you have your own strategies and plans in place. I run this channel for my own educational purposes of learning to trade, and I will never be 100% right, so please do not let me confirm any bias for you! (Dangerous to do so, stay safe and remember the basics & rules of risk assessment.) Expect the unexpected and happy trading!
In my last few SPX and ES (futures) charts, I was expecting a major peak by late 2021 at one of 4 (or /5) potential all time high points
"High: 4,916 points"
&
"Future retracement highs: 4,640 points - 5,036 points - 5,281/5,298 points"
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
In my first major (January 2021) chart adjustment, I expected retraces at 3 key levels: 4,259 points, 4,546 points, and 4,916 points.
The first 2 of those targets were fulfilled but not exactly on the time frame I expected, just slightly delayed by 2 months for each target.
The 3rd target, 4,916 points, seemed to have the right idea to point where the official bear cycle (could) start, but I expected it by September/October 2021 and it doesn't look like it started until January 2022, about 3-4 months outside of my estimates.
I believe I was close with my fibonacci but not close enough as the 3rd target was never fully fulfilled completely. This chart's peak level looks to have been off by about 2.22%.
Perhaps these levels can still be reached but I believe we are about to regress even further before then.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
In my second major (March 2021) chart update, I expected multiple small reactions off fibonacci levels as indicated by my scribbles in green. I personally think this part went pretty well.
I expected somewhat of a continuation of the channel formation that I thought appeared since the election, that appears to have happened as well.
The things that didn't happen or didn't quite happen as I expected are as follows:
1) Major market reaction off 4,256 points level (2.618 fib) by July 2021, looks more like 4,550 points about 2 months behind.
2) A reaction and cycle ending near the 3.618 and 4.236/1.618 fibs around 5,036 points and 5,200-5,300 points, it appears to have peaked at 4,808 points 1 month behind the adjusted timeframe of December 2021.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Now that all of this is complete/close to the original target, timeframe, AND the channel has been broken, I am reconsidering new levels.
In the March 2021 chart, I was expecting a crash to 3,361 points. I believe this can still happen, but I also believe it can go further than this now that I am (attempting) to use elliott wave theory to confirm my original ideas.
At this moment I cannot say much for what type of corrective pattern we are in or will be in, but for now I will expect a 5-3-5 zigzag with a very high B wave. Not saying this is what it will be, but I want to see more of the pattern print and make even more fibonacci and elliott wave adjustments before I can fully say. This is just a guess for now, as always.
I honestly need to be able to spend a lot more time looking at this chart. Everything (that I think) I see seems very rudimentary and I definitely have not fully measured all waves to confirm if the wave count or type is even correct. The main issue I am seeing when attempting to go back through historical data is that the cycle degree scale is way too big for the maximum scale degrees we can use on this software, so it makes it intensely messy when you have multiple "supermillenium" scales. I will try to color code these and add a mini-legend about which extra magnitude of "supermillenium" that wave's color could be. So for now, please ignore all the bad/overlapping degree types. I have not spent much time confirming anything yet.
Seeing in the past as this market can move faster or slower than expected, its really a wildcard to attempt to perfectly "guess" the timeframe in which this crash will happen. Maybe once we see more movement, I can start to pick apart the waves even more.
To attempt to call some numbers, my new fibonacci plotting as of now indicates a 1.618 fib around 3,384 points, which is only 23 points higher than my last chart was calling for. Perhaps this could happen anywhere from now to June 2022. I expect more "blood" this month and next for sure.
After this, depending on what some other markets could do, I think a retrace (B wave) could end near 4,200 to 4,500 points by Sept/Oct 2022 (again.)
The wave down could be really hard to predict correctly right now so I have included multiple ideas and possibilities for now. I think it could get really crazy but I'm not sure.
A crash to 2,498 points is my best guess, by either August 2022 or August 2023. There is even a smaller possibility that the S&P 500 index falls as low as 1,062-1,642 points. If stocks somehow do better than I am expecting, then I really only expect a crash to either 2,998 points, 3,386 points, or only 3,935 points.
I believe this is the bear market at last.
Please take everything here with a grain of salt, I am still learning as much as I can!
Previous charts I've built coming to these conclusions:
Thanks for tuning in :) Disclaimer, anyone in the trade needs to do their own due diligence and decide what is right for YOU. My charts can be wrong at any time and it's very important that you have your own strategies and plans in place. I run this channel for my own educational purposes of learning to trade, and I will never be 100% right, so please do not let me confirm any bias for you! (Dangerous to do so, stay safe and remember the basics & rules of risk assessment.) Expect the unexpected and happy trading!
