Unemployment is at the lowest its been in decades. from here it is likely to reverse toward 5% - 10%.
Wages have stagnated and the cost of living is continuing to increase such as the cost of
education, health care and housing. The wealth gap continues to expand and socioeconomic groups
more divided.
With employee wages remaining unchanged in 20 years, I am heavily bearish on the American equities market from here on out.
Wages have stagnated and the cost of living is continuing to increase such as the cost of
education, health care and housing. The wealth gap continues to expand and socioeconomic groups
more divided.
With employee wages remaining unchanged in 20 years, I am heavily bearish on the American equities market from here on out.
Comment:
tradingeconomics.com...es/unemployment-rate
This is a time series of Unemployment rate. It provides a good indicator of bearish market activity over time.
This is a time series of Unemployment rate. It provides a good indicator of bearish market activity over time.
Comment:
www.statista.com/sta...n-the-us-since-1980/
time.com/money/48306...ord-increase-prices/
Another chart illustrating trending prices in rental buildings. This is where citizens are moving in and these are the prices they are paying.
time.com/money/48306...ord-increase-prices/
Another chart illustrating trending prices in rental buildings. This is where citizens are moving in and these are the prices they are paying.
Comment:
here is CPI data. Consumer Price Index is a common measurement of inflation of prices in the domestic market.
here is CPI data. Consumer Price Index is a common measurement of inflation of prices in the domestic market.
Comment:
**********FIXED INCOME SIGNALING RISKS OF RECESSION********************
The Yield Curve measures the difference between interest rates on 2-year Treasury notes and 10-year treasury notes. Thursday, the gap between two-year and 10-year United States Treasury notes was 0.34 percentage points. It was last at these levels before during 2007, one of the most volatile and terrifying times in financial history.
Trump's trade wars have been sparking reaction in the US equities market as headlines emerge of Harley Davidson laying off employees. FORTUNE reports: "Concerns about rising trade tensions also spread to the broader stock market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 1.3% on Monday and the Nasdaq Composite index dropped 2.1% following reports that the Trump administration may bar Chinese companies from investing in U.S. companies with “industrially significant technology.” Shares of Chinese stocks traded on U.S. exchanges, such as Alibaba and JD, lost 4% or more of their value Monday." It seems that we should expect more to take place in the coming weeks. A form of economic contagion could be spreading throughout the markets.
I maintain my position toward risk in US equities.
The Yield Curve measures the difference between interest rates on 2-year Treasury notes and 10-year treasury notes. Thursday, the gap between two-year and 10-year United States Treasury notes was 0.34 percentage points. It was last at these levels before during 2007, one of the most volatile and terrifying times in financial history.
Trump's trade wars have been sparking reaction in the US equities market as headlines emerge of Harley Davidson laying off employees. FORTUNE reports: "Concerns about rising trade tensions also spread to the broader stock market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 1.3% on Monday and the Nasdaq Composite index dropped 2.1% following reports that the Trump administration may bar Chinese companies from investing in U.S. companies with “industrially significant technology.” Shares of Chinese stocks traded on U.S. exchanges, such as Alibaba and JD, lost 4% or more of their value Monday." It seems that we should expect more to take place in the coming weeks. A form of economic contagion could be spreading throughout the markets.
I maintain my position toward risk in US equities.
Comment:
Comment:
VIX during recession
Comment:
Comment:
VIX today
Comment:
Markets have been reacting to the trade wars adversely, neither China nor Trump folding. I maintain my short position.
Comment:
Maintaining short position till SP500 reaches 2000.
Here is a time series that illustrates inflation adjusted wages since 1938 till present.