Hi,
Today I wanted to see if I could find a sort of path for both
SPX
and
BTCUSD
I added into the graph the US Recession indicator (it just shows on chart the US recession period and the high probability dots).
Obiously the SPX is going down as people expect we are heading into a recession (and we are). So these recent market moves are driven by expectations, but sincerely I don't see why we should rally and start a new bull run while in a recession period. So I think the price will be rejected from those levels (or maybe after a bull trap) and reach the rectangle, signalling a double bottom. After that a recovery may start (summer 2023). IF the dip is strong, we may reach a new low at $3200 (red path).
On the other hand, we have
BTCUSD
that may test the 24.5-25k area, being rejected and retest 19k-20.5k support zone forming a double bottom (summer 2023). IF the double bottom scenario is invalidated (lower 16K), then we may reach new lows (10K-12K) (red path).
NOTE: both red path are unlikely, but possible.
Today I wanted to see if I could find a sort of path for both
SPX
and
BTCUSD
I added into the graph the US Recession indicator (it just shows on chart the US recession period and the high probability dots).
Obiously the SPX is going down as people expect we are heading into a recession (and we are). So these recent market moves are driven by expectations, but sincerely I don't see why we should rally and start a new bull run while in a recession period. So I think the price will be rejected from those levels (or maybe after a bull trap) and reach the rectangle, signalling a double bottom. After that a recovery may start (summer 2023). IF the dip is strong, we may reach a new low at $3200 (red path).
On the other hand, we have
BTCUSD
that may test the 24.5-25k area, being rejected and retest 19k-20.5k support zone forming a double bottom (summer 2023). IF the double bottom scenario is invalidated (lower 16K), then we may reach new lows (10K-12K) (red path). NOTE: both red path are unlikely, but possible.
Comment:
After yesterday drop BTC seems aheading to our local support. Expecting a relief bounce to occur before touching the purple zone.
Comment:
BTC: Plot Twist. Local support not reached and BTC went straight forward to the first resistance line (yellow line) at $24700!
As showed in my idea, I expect a retracement here OR at the next resistance at $30000.
IF we will break and consolidate above, then this idea is rejected and we turn into bull mode. IF btc won't break $30k, we will still be in neutral territory.
SPX: we are currently consolidating above the trendline. It may be a bull trap (if we think in terms of fundamentals and earnings recession). I would be careful in opening a long on SPX at this level.
As showed in my idea, I expect a retracement here OR at the next resistance at $30000.
IF we will break and consolidate above, then this idea is rejected and we turn into bull mode. IF btc won't break $30k, we will still be in neutral territory.
SPX: we are currently consolidating above the trendline. It may be a bull trap (if we think in terms of fundamentals and earnings recession). I would be careful in opening a long on SPX at this level.
Comment:
Followed the blue path as charted. currently sitting in the purple zone.
