I booked a subscription and paid for a charts count by elliottwave-forecast their charts do not follow up with the same degree wave over the full length of a chart.
this is my count from top level Super Cycle to lower levels based purely on Elliott Wave theory and rules of the SP500 TVC:SPX elliottwave-forecast does include a lot of other tickers within a count of one object and need to have a count that can be changed each day. They can not sell a count that is over to clients.
For me: one ticker, one wave count as any indicator without mixing other things in it not related and make it human biased. and for me each degree wave should be used consistent across the whole time frames. elliottwave-forecast gave me a count where the Super cycle counted first (many years was 1 super cycle wave) and later the same Super Cycle was used in daily periods. Because they do never show the weekly chart together with the hourly, clients do not notice it. and they use linear charting so the last movements look huge.
A long time chart that goes from 2.70$ to 3400$ can only be counted on a logarithmic chart and then you see that the March 2020 drop is not even visible to be used as a Super Cycle wave (IV) as elliottwave-forecast did.
For me, all wave counts should be visible in the same time candle stick in the RSI across the whole all time chart, with the 3rd wave ALWAYS THE highest RSI level and a divergency in the 5th wave. If you use the Super Cycle degree as a yearly candle count, then it should be the same across all years that a chart has data. If you use a Cycle degree as a monthly candle, then it should be the same across all years that a chart has data. and so on...
this chart uses the yearly candles for the Super Cycle, but the same RSI divergency shows up in the quarterly candles.
the jan 2000 high in the RSI is 97.1 so close to 100%. = it can never go higher on the yearly, quarterly or monthly candles .
= for me this is the 100% proof that is the 3rd (III) Super Cycle wave ended jan 2000
and the double top to 2008 was a (w) (x) (y) correction to mark the Super Cycle wave (IV)elliottwave-forecast used the march 2020 drop as (IV)
and we are now a the end of the 5th super Cycle wave (V) with a lower RSI and divergency compare to (III)
or that Super Cycle wave (V) has ended also, if you check the lower degree waves. elliottwave-forecast says we just started (V)
this count also reflects with what the FED or ECB or any other well-known economic professors says: we are in a period that happens once every 100 years.
the count is open for discussion if you have something to add based on the pure EW rules . I would love to explain as elliottwave-forecast that we are in Super Cycle wave (V) and lots more to the upside to come. But can not within the EW rules and RSI. I also do not sell subscriptions, so have no reason to paint you many more years of bull markets.
Probably we are just started the Super Cycle decline (w) (x) (y) , the lost decade of the stock market or at least the biggest change in history. Maybe the SP500 will not exist any-more as we know it. neither the stock market with all the banks and central banks printing . a new technology BLOCKCHAIN has emerged and DECENTRALISATION of ENERGY, power, money and data has started. (power back to the people, not in the hands of Governments or big corporations )
Central banks know this and try to safe it by massive printing. But the spirit is out of the lamp and can not be put back. ________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Here the Cycle degree since the low of 2009. this degree is on the monthly candles and again it can be seen the same divergency between the Cycle wave III and the Cycle wave V in the RSI.
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the Primary waves are best on the 2 weeks candle stick, then the waves are well visible also on the RSI with again the divergency between wave black ((3)) and ((V)) on tradingview shown as circles
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and the intermediate waves blue are best shown on the weekly (7 days) candle sticks to see the same waves also on the RSI with again the divergency between blue (3) an (5) as here:
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NOT PERFECT FOR ME, help welcome. I do not want to switch time frame candles for the same wave degree. Need to have consistency across 150 years.
The Primary degree (black circles) ( 2 week time frame) fit a bit scrammed in to the 2019 year. there is a divergency between black ((3)) and ((5)) also in the RSI but the ((5)) is way to close to the ((3)) for me on the 2 week candles.
Still you see the massive multiyear megaphone in green. that is an ending chart pattern. And the March drop is way past black ((1)) to belong to that chart pattern.
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I am still not 100% convinced that Super Cycle wave blue (V) has ended or we are in the last legs.
the Megaphone could be an expanding or reverse symmetrical triangle all belonging to red Cycle wave 5 and it shows up also in the RSI . So the subdivision of this triangle is 3 waves black ABC
and then you have the last leg up and bullish chart for the next couple of weeks. as you can see here:
I think this fits best as it also looks very good on the RSI and the same time frame can be respected and the periods of the black primary waves are the same.
= more printing of the fed to push for an all time high after closing that gap SP500 has at the top fuelled by short squeeze , followed by massive protest on the street that the FED only is for helping the rich billionaires but not main street and a massive crash after completing the megaphone to around 2000.
Very interesting analysis, thank you. Years ago, I subscribed to the EW-forecast myself, and never got clarity there about exactly the issues you are raising. The idea of the demise of the traditional financial systems by blockchain is intriguing; of course it is what its creators envisioned from start... as disruptive to financial systems, as the Internet has been to communications.
eenmakkie
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@unbeldi, EWF does not work for crypto,they do not count on log scale and by that are always in wave 3.
also, because they are behind doors, they can and do change their count totally almost weekly. they try to convince you that it goes more up when it is going down and then when the bottom is reached they change to it will go down.
they have noting to lose as their charts are not public.
for indexes and especially fiat currencies I think they might help. but also never checked it.
unbeldi
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@eenmakkie, Well, I was a subscriber long before anybody knew what cryptocurrencies are, I was trading SPX options at the time, I believe. So, I agree with you.
PriceActionHelp
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Wave 5 seems to short. Wave 5 could have started in March this year and still has time to reach the top.
supere
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Agree with your view. I've been exploring many charts to analyze the FED's impact on the market and discovered that the distortion they've created is quite significant. In fact, since 2018, the baseline of the market has floated up and completely disconnected from real economic charts by about 1250 points. Therefore, it's plausible for me consider that the bear market actually started in 2018 and the actions of the FED literally transformed a leading diagonal (first wave) elliott wave pattern into an expanding one. This theory could rationalize that we have already entered the first THIRD wave of the greater grand super cycle bear market 'A' wave. It also explains why the Feb-Mar drop was so sudden and violent (because we are already in the first part of the THIRD wave). I've also been tracking Gann's work and if you consider his cycle times, then this whole grand super cycle drop should go on from now until about 2030 with the following time sequence:
'A' wave: Present to early 2021
'B' wave: Early 2021 to 2024
'C' wave: 2024-2028
First recovery: 2028-2030
Recovery exhaustion: 2030-2032
New bull market: 2032+
Dpipz
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Its really all up to where the Algos push the price...cant go off of data from the 1900's.
farmerisland
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@eenmakkie I'm curious on what you think is going to happen as part of unique 100-year period we are in, and clarify the reset you see happening. Maybe the stock market will never exist as we know it, sure, but what are the most likely symptoms as we go forward this year?
eenmakkie
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@farmerisland, probably that megaphone structure. increasing volatility a fight between the FED and the real economics.
I think that is normal for big changes. If you look to the dot-com bust, at the top was also massive moves. (ofcourse you have to zoom in for those companies that still exist to see it. )
big changes are coming.
this is the music playing on the titanic. and the FED is the captain
farmerisland
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@eenmakkie, Good stuff; I agree. It's just a matter of when, not if, at this point... I was thinking we'd crash sooner, but it's looking more likely to push the envelope of the megaphone and ATH before such downward violence really begins.
kaxo1
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You saw my recent post, but to reiterate some points .. the world has intertwined itself in a global monetary ticking timebomb. Nobody know (including Central Banks) how international banking is done because it's all done in separate books offshore in places like the Cayman Islands to avoid the regulatory pressure of the governments. These "shadow repo" lending practices are behind every market crash since 2008 ... the primary lenders saw that junk collateral had got into the system when MBSs started failing in 2006, so they started tightening, but that affected the interest rates and when they saw in August of 2007 that the Fed wasn't able to actually control these rates, they tightened even harder. At this point foreign banking was done primarily with offshore eurodollars, which they needed to post collateral for, but when the MBSs collapsed, these banks had to scramble for any form of liquidity that they could get, sending shockwaves through the equity markets and eventually causing a bunch of European banks to fail. Since then, banks have continued to tighten at the first sight of problems, and as a result global trade has been stagnant and there's been little economic growth in the last 12 years, which has further exacerbated the problem, as the dollar shortage and lack of high quality collateral continues to plague the global monetary system. A ton of junk, it appears, got into this repo market some time back in 2015/2016, and a lot of it hit the fan in 2018, causing the bond market to almost crash, but it did send much of the world into a silent recession. A hidden bout of repo failures, loan defaults, and inverted yield curves in late 2019 was a massive red flag that caused a ton of CEOs to step down and banks to start building up stockpiles of cash, which (again) made things way worse, and inevitably flash-crashed the markets in March. The worst has yet to come with this, and it will explode the global monetary system that has now been entangled with equities, trade, government, currencies, social well-being, etc. I HOPE this isn't how this all plays out, but I just don't see any way around it now that the virus and government shutdowns have pushed the economies closer to the brink of collapse