ProfitHarvest
Short

[SPX 4H] Price Trapped Under Support, TRIN to SELL Upchannel!

SPCFD:SPX   S&P 500 Index
Wild day!

TRIN moved to almost exactly neutral but at the end of a megaphone structure while transitioning into a wide upchannel towards PANIC SELL this is very bearish .

At this point, if it flips back above 2 (assuming the structures hold, this is increasingly likely with each passing day) the market is likely toast and crash/panic selloff/programmatic selloff will ensue.

Average of entire megaphone is right on TRIN SELL line. Also very bearish here.

You know, I probably sound like a PERMABEAR on here but there's still just basically no data supporting any kind of Bull case. I've sought it out every day for weeks now to no avail.

There are a COUPLE fair Bull cases out there (that make a lot of aggressive assumptions about the market) but they look so damn weak when weighed against the reams of data supporting a market crash this month.

I'm more like a Lion ... just waiting patiently for my opportunity to rush in for the KILL!
Comment: They gapped it up over the ABOVE resistance line today lol.

Let's see how long that holds!

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Comments

Gap up, broken down and didn't really look back.

I saw large volume offloading off the VWAP and low vol pumps back up most the day. It is a gut feeling, but all my indicators pointed to institutional selloff, but not panic. Big shift from the past, but I think the bigger players don't see the upside as worth the risk.

Yesterday was the remaining retail FOMO of people who were cash gang getting in under 3k. It was expected and today we had decent retail news and no bombshells in Congress, so their was a steady but trend, but I didn't see anything that tells me the bull is happy and looking to charge.

Gap up and dropping under 200 SMA again tells the tell
+1 Reply
ProfitHarvest oranjcrush
@oranjcrush, You might enjoy the 6mo TRIN...
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/$TRIN/technical-chart/

That big spike was Big Money cashing out the farm the day after it become clear China wouldn't be able to stop the spread of the coronavirus like it did with SARS. Everyone knew it was coming except the little guy.

They've been gradually cashing out since, all aftermarket/market-open so they crush the best price every time ahead of Retail of course.

I'll go long when all that cash starts flooding back into the system B).
Reply
Nice chart.
+1 Reply
Thanks
+1 Reply
Today’s close felt weird. I get a feeling this thing is headed back up for a bit.
+1 Reply
ProfitHarvest horacejunior
@horacejunior, The market is walking on eggshells every... single... day...

Anything could trigger a selloff, everything has to go exactly perfect for it to keep climbing lol.
Reply
horacejunior ProfitHarvest
@ProfitHarvest, fully agreed; just wonder if reality is a thing anymore. Close felt manipulated, as if there was a line someone decided we couldn’t cross
+1 Reply
ProfitHarvest horacejunior
@horacejunior, Nice tip! I don't usually zoom into the 15m but yea, this little line that I laid down weeks ago is the one you're referring too...


And yes they've been very manipulative around these lines...
Reply
horacejunior ProfitHarvest
@ProfitHarvest, it’s sort of unbelievable. Regardless not the worst thing if it goes up— happy for more attractive put prices!
+1 Reply
I wonder if that EOD “pump” was shorts being covered as this dead cat bounce is over. I’d say it’s going down! But I say that with zero percent confidence and a likelihood that the data is useless, there is no free will and we will all die alone. I’m always wrong anyway, anyway. I’m still loaded up on UVXY calls either way
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