It is going to be a long week for being a short 4-session week, that's all I'm very sure of.
The news could go either way:
Generally speaking, my predictions are a muted Monday with decent volume, but mainly consolidation in a relatively (for the current environment) small price range (2990 - 3040). We may gap up a bit and have a morning/opening rally that bleeds into a slow fade all day of selling off the VWAP, or, inversely, we could have a gap down that begins with a bang of high volume selling with prices leveling out into a slow rally all day up to about even, maybe slightly positive.
Most the intraday action in the last weeks has essentially offset any large gaps from pre-market/futures, they only thing I've seen a change in (and it is important) is from overall stubborn Bull sentiment to an easing back into a frightful Bull market sentiment -- where small pullbacks draw out fear more than an opportunity to buy till it gets to major support level where buying comes in with a bit more risk on.
I'm marking this as neutral, but there really is a strong bearish opening here. Bulls are on their heels trying to keep it together -- if there was a time where bad news was actually bad for the market, I think we are there.
If there are great drops, watch out for the bounces off key supports (look at last Friday off the 3000/SPY298 level). Bulls will not give up 3000 without a deathblow-level report. Talking absolute reverse of expectations.
Pending Homes sales are looking for the bounce (again): down even more or even could be a huge upset. U.S. Dallas Fed Mfg Business Index generally isn't a huge mover, but if it doesn't get up into the -20 -- -30s, it would be a sign we are stalling/slipping back.
Key Ranges:
3010-2020: Fight for the hearts and minds of the market here. Tough to confidently enter or short/long.
3025+ : Bulls are charging, and will be looking up to the 3060 area
2990 - 3005: Bears are in control and looking down to 2950 area and closing us at least under 200DMA
Support/Resist price levels from price action:
3092/3077/3030/3015/3000
2990/2973/2964/2940/2913
Note: I'm not expecting it tomorrow, or even this week, but there is a huge gap to be filled 2864 - 2915
The news could go either way:
- Pending Home Sales (After Monday open)
- Dallas Mfg Index (After Monday open)
- Redbook/Chicago PMI (Before Tuesday open)
- Not really news, but pensions rebalancing after a major equities rally could be essentially a large volume 'profit-taking' session and buy up in bonds
- Consumer Conf / Services revenues (Tuesday morning)
- Crude Oil Stock (Late tuesday / after close)
- Challenger & ADP Monthly reports before Wednesday open
- FOMC Minutes after close
- Thursday is jammed backed with unemployment
Generally speaking, my predictions are a muted Monday with decent volume, but mainly consolidation in a relatively (for the current environment) small price range (2990 - 3040). We may gap up a bit and have a morning/opening rally that bleeds into a slow fade all day of selling off the VWAP, or, inversely, we could have a gap down that begins with a bang of high volume selling with prices leveling out into a slow rally all day up to about even, maybe slightly positive.
Most the intraday action in the last weeks has essentially offset any large gaps from pre-market/futures, they only thing I've seen a change in (and it is important) is from overall stubborn Bull sentiment to an easing back into a frightful Bull market sentiment -- where small pullbacks draw out fear more than an opportunity to buy till it gets to major support level where buying comes in with a bit more risk on.
I'm marking this as neutral, but there really is a strong bearish opening here. Bulls are on their heels trying to keep it together -- if there was a time where bad news was actually bad for the market, I think we are there.
If there are great drops, watch out for the bounces off key supports (look at last Friday off the 3000/SPY298 level). Bulls will not give up 3000 without a deathblow-level report. Talking absolute reverse of expectations.
Pending Homes sales are looking for the bounce (again): down even more or even could be a huge upset. U.S. Dallas Fed Mfg Business Index generally isn't a huge mover, but if it doesn't get up into the -20 -- -30s, it would be a sign we are stalling/slipping back.
Key Ranges:
3010-2020: Fight for the hearts and minds of the market here. Tough to confidently enter or short/long.
3025+ : Bulls are charging, and will be looking up to the 3060 area
2990 - 3005: Bears are in control and looking down to 2950 area and closing us at least under 200DMA
Support/Resist price levels from price action:
3092/3077/3030/3015/3000
2990/2973/2964/2940/2913
Note: I'm not expecting it tomorrow, or even this week, but there is a huge gap to be filled 2864 - 2915
Trade active:
Quick update, short from 3039 (MES). Long 1 SPXW 6/30 3000p
Trade closed: stop reached:
Closed up for minimal profit on the MES and sold off the put (which I did re-buy at close).
Not messing with extended hours as the something just doesn't fit here. Maybe this is a preventative pump for tomorrow? Maybe just a pump and dump (AH had tons of volume with sell offs).
Either way, bulls took the field today on decently good reporting.
Tommorow is the real prize. Lots of consumer reports and FED speaches.
Common sense tells me that Q2 rebalancing should put some pressure on selling equities and buying bonds/fixed, but who knows.
Not messing with extended hours as the something just doesn't fit here. Maybe this is a preventative pump for tomorrow? Maybe just a pump and dump (AH had tons of volume with sell offs).
Either way, bulls took the field today on decently good reporting.
Tommorow is the real prize. Lots of consumer reports and FED speaches.
Common sense tells me that Q2 rebalancing should put some pressure on selling equities and buying bonds/fixed, but who knows.
Comment:
Past two day have been huge ups with bulls tails up high -- bounced (hard) off march support though. Was this all a gap fill? Can't be that crazy, right?
I'm not buying that, but also not ready to step in front of a train to prove my point. Might be an overnight where I set a wide stop sell right at the day high area and see if I can pick up a better position for the morning.
Did that last night to pick up a MES short at 3025 (stop was 3028). Looking at the 77/81 area for tonight if the action till then still calls for it.