There are four market dimensions; Price, Time, Momentum and Sentiment. Within each dimension there are many sub indicators. On 7/3/19 a powerful momentum signal was registered for US stocks - all three main US stock indices; SPX , DJI, and Nasdaq Composite recorded all-time highs.
What's very interesting about the DJI high is that it was made without strong participation by its strongest component - Boeing (BA). I started recommending going long BA on 3/18/19. Since then in spite of continuing bearish news the stock refuses to have a large downside break. The Technical picture for BA is still bullish and it could soon make a new all-time high. If BA can reach a new high the DJI could rally another 10%.
Recently "Investor's Business Daily" using their CANSLIM method noted that Facebook (FA) Amazon) ( AMZN ) and Netflix ( NFLX ) were all close to buy points. Using the CANSLIM method, stocks are at their best purchase points when making new highs- specifically when they break above the high point of a "Cup with Handle" formation. The buy points are FB = 198.58, AMZN = 1964.50, and NFLX = 386.09. If these stocks which have been market leaders for several years hit their buy points the Nasdaq could rally another 10%.
Within the Time dimension the SPX continues to follow the analogy with the 1987 SPX bull market, please see my post on this subject. This is a very narrow pathway that the SPX must follow. There is very little leeway. The SPX needs to continue moving up strong in the next two to three weeks, otherwise something else is happening.
My primary Elliott wave count posted on this chart is based upon evidence from the Momentum and Time dimensions. If this count is correct the SPX is about to enter a "third of a third" wave up which is usually the strongest and most dynamic part of a developing five wave impulse pattern. This is exactly the type of action needed to break potentially very powerful Fibonacci resistance at SPX 3047 - which I have been posting about since January 2018.
On 7/3/19 trading view member - The Swinger had a very good SPX post. On the chart The Swinger illustrates a rising trend line connecting the SPX January and September 2018 peaks. For every Elliott wave bullish count there's always an alternate bearish count. The rising trend line hints that the SPX from January 2018 could be forming an Expanding Horizontal Triangle, if so the current rally from December 2018 could be wave "D" with a top at or just above the trend line - perhaps near 3047? If this is in effect and the SPX tops in that zone the subsequent wave "E' decline could last several months and bottom below the SPX late 2018 low of 2346. I will have further posts on this subject if the SPX stalls in the low 3000 area.
If the SPX can decisively break above 3047 it opens the door for a move up to the next major Fibonacci resistance zone in the low 3300 area, time target late August to early September 2019.
The world's biggest ATM just got yanked out the wall.... -40% in less than three minutes!!!!!!!
Talking heads have silly excuses - reality is the market hit hundreds of billions in a hole for months and and are now digging it out.
How ridiculous.
BUY GOLD NOW!
That's where the real money is now going....
mstable
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@mstable, Sorry, minus 40 dollars - only -11%.....
gvmrb0040
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Mark, May i ask, why 3050 is your resustance area long term on spx? Understand it is 1.382 for the 2730-2960 swing. 3100 is 1.618 fib and likewise 3300 the 1.618 for 2330-2960 swing. Just would like to know ypur logic on 3050?
Hi Please see my SPX post made on 4/1/18 - Part Two of Four posts that explain the SPX 3047 - 3050 forecast.
Also please see my SPX 6/22/19 post that explains my new possible SPX resistance near 3300.
Mark
Merit-Ocrasse
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Bang on ... Im committed to Harry Dents ideas which line up exactly with a 3300 in late this year or early next.
Great post Mark. It's good to have a balanced view of the market.
One thing I forgot to mention in my recent post is the wave count in the Expanding Horizontal Triangle (EHT). The current wave up may already be wave "E" if we start with the January 2018 top as point "A". On the contrary, the current wave up may be wave "D", as you mentioned, if we start the wave count entering the EHT on the way down with the February 2018 lows as wave "A". Often times, that second way of counting works well in Running Symmetric Triangles. However, I'm not exactly sure how well it works in EHTs. It's generally accepted that in a bull market, wave "A" entry into triangles should be down.
If a bearish move occurs, we may see the market containing heavy support at the 200w MA. Look at the December 2018 lows. The market reversed at exactly the 200w MA (with a spike in the week of December 24th, 2018). This was the wave "C" bottom in your count. If this is true, SPX may not move much lower than 2350s. Rather, it may contain large support around the 2500s, which is where the 200w MA is expected to be in about September 2019. However, if we do move lower to around 2200s (bottom trend line in my recent post), then weakness would start to show in the markets. That situation may be an early indication of pending failure for a truncated primary wave 5, which could be a partial rise once wave "E" in your count is fully complete.
Keep up the good work!
TheSwinger
judejames
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bro it will break, love your analysis always matches with mine. amazon hits ath this month.
Talking heads have silly excuses - reality is the market hit hundreds of billions in a hole for months and and are now digging it out.
How ridiculous.
BUY GOLD NOW!
That's where the real money is now going....