US stocks are seasonally bearish from May to October. In years such as 2021, when US stocks rise in May and June, they occasionally peak in August and decline into October. Crude Oil has a seasonal bullish pattern from June until August then declines into December.
The Coronavirus recovery is probably the reason Crude Oil is rising. US stocks are being pulled up with the Crude Oil rally. I say "pulled up" because the Crude Oil rally is more robust than stocks.
Crude Oil from its 2020 bottom has rallied in a clear Elliott five wave impulse pattern and appears to be in the fifth wave.
A .50 retracement from Crude Oil's all-time high is 82.91.
A .618 retracement from Crude Oil's secondary top of 115.27 is 77.60.
This zone is just above chart resistance at 76.72 - the October 2018 peak.
If Crude Oil tops in August it could complete the five-waves up from 2020. If so it could begin a multi- month decline.
US stocks have been slowly rising, and my more extensive writings have detailed several bearish momentum signals.
A multi-month decline in Crude Oil could be the final straw that breaks the back of the US stock bull market.
Mark
The Coronavirus recovery is probably the reason Crude Oil is rising. US stocks are being pulled up with the Crude Oil rally. I say "pulled up" because the Crude Oil rally is more robust than stocks.
Crude Oil from its 2020 bottom has rallied in a clear Elliott five wave impulse pattern and appears to be in the fifth wave.
A .50 retracement from Crude Oil's all-time high is 82.91.
A .618 retracement from Crude Oil's secondary top of 115.27 is 77.60.
This zone is just above chart resistance at 76.72 - the October 2018 peak.
If Crude Oil tops in August it could complete the five-waves up from 2020. If so it could begin a multi- month decline.
US stocks have been slowly rising, and my more extensive writings have detailed several bearish momentum signals.
A multi-month decline in Crude Oil could be the final straw that breaks the back of the US stock bull market.
Mark