A wonderful opportunity to test a tenet of Elliott Wave Theory lies before us at this moment, before we can use hindsight to fix our wave counts (hehe).
In Elliott Wave Theory, wave 3 cannot be the shortest wave. One reasonable way to count the structure from the March lows is as I have it labeled above. If that is the correct count, wave 3 looks pretty short, but since it is shorter than wave 1, then wave 5 cannot be longer than wave 3. That is a hard rule.
So, by using the fib extension tool with precision (magnets), if we extend the length of wave 3 to what we propose is wave 5, then wave 5 cannot exceed 3432.20 on the nose.
And what do you know, we closed today at 3431.30 after hitting a high of 3432.10. If this is the right count, then we have no room left to go and we should be done and we should now correct.
Now, as an alternative (below), if we move wave 4 over to the next low made on June 29th, then wave 5 cannot exceed 3466.2, a mere 1% move above (but this count doesn't look as good to me).
So, we are either already there or virtually there.
But, if it doesn't work out, then we must make some other count. :)
Im not sure if Elliot Wave Theory normal rules would hold in such an environment of massive Market wide manipulation and intervention by Central Banks as it surely was formulated on and for "organic" trading conditions..?
Everything about this Rally stinks. I have followed our ASX (Australia) closely to witness when it fell, it was bought up in the afternoon session with prices being bid up with ONLY bad news as the driver (?) and when it rallied
in the morning strongly on nothing , the organic afternoon trading would drive it gradually back to below where it began, too often. Never did I think I'd see strong% gains across the Board on the whiff of a rumour of a Vaccine
in the Media, yet when solid evidence of a serious Depression forming via a 32% drop in GDP is announced the Market shrugs it shoulders and says "meh...the Bull Run MUST go on. Its already priced in..! " Bollox !
Even an examination of the Price Action shows odd formations/patterns that just look unnatural.
Indicators that are usually reliable show divergence from the Price Action more regularly than not, yet does the Market care? Not.
Whether the interventions would distort the usual patterns that have given rise to such theories as Elliot Wave I dont know, but there is definitely something noticeably fishy about the Price Action since March 24th.
xCM
Jl_mly
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So is this the top?
SammyHas
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Well explained . Always Elliott Waves are after the fact .
"If then else and or ".....
example ..... if it goes higher then 3466 then (3) was (1) and (4) was (2) .....
DaddySawbucks
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Hmmm may I suggest a redraw effort, with (1) as (3); (3) as (5); and a zig-zag a-b-c after that, with a WXYXW ending diagonal complex in Jul/Aug?
Regardless how we label this, obviously nearing end of an amazing run. I thought it would rollover in June, but injecting 2T kept it alive!