Wave A took form of a minor abc, duping many to believe all is well; rebound to the 0.62 Fibo near completion, acting very much B-wave like with wild swings and volatility struggling higher; several gaps to fill below now, most recent at 3348 on 10/05; 3305 from the week before, and all the way back to 2865 on 18 May.
An ABC in the RSI may be expected as well, given chaotic nature of markets and overhead resistance, reaching overbought seems unlikely IMO.
This is textbook case from John J Murphy, Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets, Fig 4-10a; break, retracement back to the TL and rejection. Closing my longs Tues 10/06 and scaling in shorts; week of 12 Oct might be quite volatile IMO; price may exceed the Fibo at 3444 slightly IMO.
Weakness may set in as early as Wednesday or Thursday this week; intensify week of 12- 16, and panic selling may appear week of 19 - 23 Oct. Pivot in the week prior to election is likely IMO, but weakness and volatility might persist in the days leading up to it.
Here's Murphy's free textbook pdf, I highly recommend this read:
Scroll down to p.2, LOL; p;1 is blank, not a screen load error! Enjoy! This is not financial advice, trade at your own risk, GLTA!!
Trade active
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Short SPY in 30 OCT 340P; GLTA!
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Closed the 340s ITM and rolled back in on the mid-day lift; Bearishness came on sooner than expected, Tues usually Bullish ~4/5 sessions, this is ominous IMO
Trade active
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Yeah closed puts and bought 100 calls on the selloff near bottom, sold them on the bounce, what a piece of luck, TYVM MR TRUMP!!!
SHORT THE RALLY I MO
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Shorted QQQ & SPY EOD
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We got a bearish engulfing candle on the TRump tweet. IMO this was coming regardless, he forced it sooner.
Today was amazing; shorted the AM drop, shorted the rally by pure happy chance just before the tweet, based on price reached 3424 and QQQ >280; rode the Donald Train and bought the bounce, shorted again and held 40 bear spreads for Wednesday.
Futurz look bearish mostly for NQ1!, expect a tech hammering IMO; notably RUT was very Bullish and gave back very little today, showing Bullish Divergence;
Warning: I would not get slap-happy and load up on puts, MOMO could easily jump on the dump and run it up again. That said; a waterfall cascade is certainly a real possibility now...
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See what I mean?? If you plunged into puts EOD Trump killed you overnight with his endless petty manipulative comments, tweet, re-tweet, flip=flop.
Giving back some of yesterday's win, kept pos small just b/c of this- damned tweeter! IMO trend is still down, each successive hig price on QQQ is $2 below the last...
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Fade the Gap earned back half my drawdown but price remains stubbornly 40+ pips above Tues close. Might fade EOD; or Thursday...?!
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Got more back on the 12:27 mini-sell; no news on it, just a large order dump IMO; closed out all pos; wait, see.
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Double topping at 3420 gonna gt some bear spreads
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At 3424 they bought back evry damned penny ffs! QQQ >280, same... double topped IMO
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Appears to form a zig-zag correction; if so, C ending near 3200
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28/29 Oct looking a LOT like 23/24 Sep; if this plays same way, gonna get a big green candle Friday 10/30... no shorts, few longs, holding my breath...!
@SunnyHillCapital, Happy to hear and hope these ideas bear fruit, lol!
LacDaddy
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I think your calls have been fantastic and eager to learn more from your views. However, I can't help but wonder if we are headed higher here due to NYSI breakout over 8ema and NYAD breakout to new highs. Seems so much breadth is in the bulls favor and setup. I completely understand the abc wave, but when do you say to yourself this may be going a different direction?
DaddySawbucks
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@LacDaddy, It just might! Hedge all ur bets! Greed and Hope driving it now, Fear will return soon enough IMO
LacDaddy
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@DaddySawbucks, looks like Fear certainly returned! Great call
DaddySawbucks
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@LacDaddy, ty; see comment; if zig-zag holds, then ending soon, another leg up on 4 nov!
DaddySawbucks
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Have to credit this fascinating chart, kudos to egudenas:
RSI divergence for two years strongly suggests we stand at the brink.
stooky
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Thanks for posting the chart and thoughts. Well done.