This is the SELL signal I've been warning about. Ignore at your own peril!
Shot right through the resistance like a hot knife through butter. Literally off the chart right now lol.
No going back now. Big Money sees the writing on the wall, that's what it only spiked AFTER close.
Probably means we'll gap down tomorrow or maybe just a fast opening crash, we'll see.
Slightly updated my predicted crash line here.
Sorry, I definitely got ahead of myself here in my excitement B).
It definitely doesn't mean there will be a selloff tomorrow, just given everything I think there's a good chance. Not directly because of the TRIN.
Honestly I'm way out of my depth with this thing, it's just fascinating as hell.
Everything I know is from Investopedia lol:
"A TRIN reading below one typically accompanies a strong price advance, since the strong volume in the rising stocks helps fuel the rally.
A TRIN reading above one typically accompanies a strong price decline, since the strong volume in the decliners helps fuel the selloff.
The Arms Index moves opposite the price trajectory of the Index. As discussed above, a strong price rally will see TRIN move to lower levels. A falling index will see TRIN push higher."
BUT you guys are right, this does not trigger the collapse, it just seems to be a leading indicator.
Looks like TRIN settled right at 1.59 on it's way to Panic Sell level (as far as I read greater than 2 is panic selling level of behavior) and outside the norm. It's an asymetrical indicator as buying is always gradual and measured. No one is Panic Buying the SPX ever lol.
Now that we got that clear, lets move deeper.
FarmerIsland was kind enough to point me over to the TRIN barcharts:
Where for some reason none of the numbers match at all to the fcking indicator. Still have no clue but for our purposes "relative" understanding is much more valuable here than the "absolute" understanding of these things.
Please select the daily 20 year range and look to that super tall bar at the far right. You can zoom in better with the 1 year.
These spikes I assume to be Big Money selloffs, usually aftermarket/right on open at levels impossible for anyone else to conjur, however they don't correlate directly to price movements even though it seems like they should. Still unraveling the mystery on that. My best guess is they move money around in ways that protect them from a crash (all that movement causes the spike) without crashing the price immediately. That's all I got, feel free to jump in.
Anyway, you'll notice that we started getting some big spikes going into 2020, this seems to have been Big Money hedging on a 2020 recession, which had significant likelihood pre-coronavirus.
Then out of nowhere we get the most epic spike we've seen in 20 years by miles. That date was Feb. 13th. The day the world found out China wouldn't be able to contain the virus like SARS and that it was looking much worse than expected. 7 days later on Feb. 20th the "March crash" began.
Biggest outflow of money from the market in two decades by miles and it was reflected in the price about a week later, with an epic crash and even more epic dead cat bounce. If we had only realized at the time, we could all be millionaires! ;) (I'm shorting everything I got if we ever get another massive spike like that lol)
Cut back to here and all we got is this little indicator thing that I'm trying to read for trends in the data and the trends say we're moving from expanding volatility to massively wide upchannel towards panic selloff.
Today the TRIN landed right on the average peak trend and the more activity we get above the peak trend and above the red line in the coming days, the scarier. So keep an eye and lets see how this plays out.
Could ultimately be a red herring but I doubt it.
Just gonna drop one quick updated chart here. Notice the new upchannel config, more devastating than before:
I think most likely at ~20% is MSM starting the Coronarvirus 2nd Wave NOMO (Inverse-FOMO).
Right behind that at ~18% maybe MSM starting NOMO over economic fundamentals, especially toward Q2 earnings
Banks stress test low on the list but I'm leaning heavy into market psychology perception shift, via MSM finally realizing something we here all already know, being the trigger.
Trying to prop this thing all the way through November is very obviously a FAR riskier strategy and shit R/R.
On a related note, I’ve been short everything once I heard hertz was up 600% after filing petition. It’s hurt a little and last Thursday was nice but let’s be honest this shit is just beginning. We will retest lows by September.