-bearish divergence on monthly
-bullish momentum is weakening, shown by DMI, both strength and direction, could be divergence too
-Stoch shown with blue on PTS is on highest levels
-MACD on highest levels and made a cross
-Elliot wave says S&P 500 is in fifth stage, look for , check the related idea for drawn
--Grexit might happen, Euro will weaken, Dollar will get strength, and therefore equities/S&P 500 will be down.
--Potential interest rates hike by FED, and/or done simultaneously.
--elections in September, can have an impact
--If not rate hike in June, then in September, this month might be critical, since the most down month since 1929 is September
-Yellen said equities are overvalued
-S&P is weakening
-Statistically speaking, S&P is neutral/bearish in summer
-Stocks have too high , overbought.
-Unemployment at all time highs, NOT IN LABOR FORCE number is close to 100 million
-Student loans bubble could be another trigger
-SP on monthly can move at most 200-400 basis points, and the trend is likely to continue 6 months - 2 years.
-below 2000 is very likely in this scenario
-1700 looks like a good target, possible this year
-Worst case scenario, 1300
-These drops will likely happen after some months of downtrend
Scenario on how it would happen:
S1: June drop, to 2000, could be a bit above, (rate hike or not) then summer slow crash, then big crash on september to 1700
S2: launch on june, S&500 gets slow/bearish(2000-2200), then on september rate hike is announced due to weak economy in this summer, doing it a crash.
Worst case scenario, S&P 500 gets a big big bottom just like stage II and stage IV bottom. Meaning it could be both bigger drop than I-II wave and III-IV wave, and make a LOWER LOW, hinting below 700. That's science fiction, but worth mentioning.
Knowing HFT's they can flash crash the economy to all time lows if they want it to and is likely to happen.
If none of the above happens, then we all continue to see green S&P all over the place, the world keeps going, party continues.