I have a hard time ignoring how we have crashed into resistance here at the rate and strength we have. This should lead to a few scenarios that could play out. This next week will be critical to overall direction. Generally in my experiences when we approach support or resistance at this pace its tough to get rejected back out.
If your bearish (which I am) your looking for one of 3 things to happen this coming week in projection "B":
1) We turn friday into island reversal and open below fridays open and begin downward in a similar mirroring action to the way up.
2) We gap up demonstrably to around 2720 ish and fade the week, similar to that of first week of December. (most bearish imo)
3) We gap down Monday and fake higher lower all week only to resolve lower in the following week (I believe high odds of this)
If your bullish your looking for consolidation in projection "A". That is it! I don't feel as though continued upward movement next week is bullish. In fact that only makes me more bearish as this will increase the counter move in size and velocity. A mild move to the downside to symmetrically complete the unconfirmed IHS on the chart could also be a likely bullish outcome (I give this high odds)
Overall the range the market was in last week should have offered more resistance in the moment than it did. Take it as you may. Generally a build up of pressure directly below resistance and THEN and blast into the zone would indicate we will continue to trade into that new range. When we slice into a new range like a razor sharp knife as we have with little to no consolidation or pullback that is an indicator that we are going to be coming back out.
I am also noting a few characteristics from Friday that make me think there is a RTH high still coming above Friday's on Monday:
1) ES traded higher in the after hour session on Friday afternoon after the bell was closed making a neww high over Friday's RTH high. Upward auctions do not end the AH generally although they can.
2) Compare SPY to ES close. There was some OE manipulation and pegging there for sure. This manipulation turned the afternoon from excess to plate crowding to form semi poor high.
If your bearish (which I am) your looking for one of 3 things to happen this coming week in projection "B":
1) We turn friday into island reversal and open below fridays open and begin downward in a similar mirroring action to the way up.
2) We gap up demonstrably to around 2720 ish and fade the week, similar to that of first week of December. (most bearish imo)
3) We gap down Monday and fake higher lower all week only to resolve lower in the following week (I believe high odds of this)
If your bullish your looking for consolidation in projection "A". That is it! I don't feel as though continued upward movement next week is bullish. In fact that only makes me more bearish as this will increase the counter move in size and velocity. A mild move to the downside to symmetrically complete the unconfirmed IHS on the chart could also be a likely bullish outcome (I give this high odds)
Overall the range the market was in last week should have offered more resistance in the moment than it did. Take it as you may. Generally a build up of pressure directly below resistance and THEN and blast into the zone would indicate we will continue to trade into that new range. When we slice into a new range like a razor sharp knife as we have with little to no consolidation or pullback that is an indicator that we are going to be coming back out.
I am also noting a few characteristics from Friday that make me think there is a RTH high still coming above Friday's on Monday:
1) ES traded higher in the after hour session on Friday afternoon after the bell was closed making a neww high over Friday's RTH high. Upward auctions do not end the AH generally although they can.
2) Compare SPY to ES close. There was some OE manipulation and pegging there for sure. This manipulation turned the afternoon from excess to plate crowding to form semi poor high.
Trade closed manually:
would recommend cover into todays early morning action. Noting 45 degree line in overnight activity, possible to pounce higher again