On 03/26/20 I posted on this site "Important Bottom in Place - Super Bullish Rally Underway. Subsequently I stayed bullish until July 20, 2020 when I issued a yellow alert - caution that an intermediate sized correction could be underway. The decline never happened, on August 6, 2020 I was back to bullish. When 2021 began I suspected that a major peak in US stocks could be forming. There were a few times it looked like the top was very near, especially when the SPX was at a major resistance point of 4008. The SPX blew beyond that supposed resistance. Now in May 2021 the bearish evidence is so overwhelming that I'm issuing a rare RED ALERT! Fully bearish on US stocks. The last time I issued a red alert was my 04/19/21 post "Massive Bubble May Have Burst". That was a post about Bitcoin in US Dollars (BTCUSD).
There's so much bearish evidence that it would take me several posts to give a full explanation. The detailed analysis can be viewed in the other areas where I write.
These are the main bearish points. US stocks are seasonally bearish from late April/early May until October. The massive SPX rally from March 2020 overpowered seasonality in 2020. The phase after October 2020 has brought the SPX to 93% above the March 2020 bottom. This huge move in just 14 months is almost unprecedented and a perfect example of a market moving too far too fast. The SPX rally high point came on May 7, 2021 the extreme end of the prior bullish season.
The RSI reveals that momentum of the rally is lagging. At the May 7 top daily RSI had a double bearish divergence. There are bearish divergences on the SPX weekly and monthly RSI.
Margin debt for US stocks is at an all-time high exceeding levels reached at the last major US stock market top in October 2007. High margin debt is a sign of excessive bullishness and is viewed as a contrary indicator.
Five Intermediate degree Elliott waves up from March 2020 can be counted as complete. Short-term there are five-waves down from the May 7 top and the subsequent rally was in a corrective three-wave. There's a high probability the SPX could decline sharply in the last week of May 2021.
Time has run out for the stock market bulls, the bear appears to be ready to take control. The spectacular 2020 to 2021 rally was smooth and steady - a blessing on the way up, but it could be a curse on the way down. There's no significant support levels for the bulls to defend, its possible the entire 2020 to 2021 rally could be completely retraced before the end of 2021.
Hey buddy. Can we have pullbacks in minor waves of September & October 2020 with in W3 be larger/bigger pullbacks than a larger degree W2 of May 2020. Thanks in advance for
your answer and analysis.
markrivest
⋅
@samitrading,
Hi
Occasionally a lesser degree correction can be larger in price and time than a higher degree correction.
For example a Minor wave two correction could be 20 points in 2 weeks while a Intermediate wave two correction is 10 points in 1 week.
Mark
samitrading
⋅
@markrivest, Hey buddy, thanks for sharing your experience. But that does not make sense logically it would make our counts even
harder because we will never be able to distinguish large Ws from small Ws and that is one big factor in determining Ws structures .
Is these small details available in Frost & Prechter's book, or can you tell me which/where can i find these small details ?
thanks in advance buddy.
markrivest
⋅
@samitrading,
Hi
Read the Elliott wave rules in the Frost & Prechter book. You won't find any rule that says a Minor degree wave must be smaller than an Intermediate degree wave.
Bob Prechter has said "form is constant, size will vary". I learned that lesser degree waves can be larger than than higher degree waves when I used to subscribe to Prechter's
newsletter.
And yes it does make wave counting harder. The good part is that this phenomenon doesn't happen very much, you need to be aware that it can happen.
Mark
samitrading
⋅
@markrivest, Thanks buddy . So when we are suppose to crash buddy i have my W1 extended done and ripe for a correction >
20% a while a go. Every one is waiting for it do you think it will ever happen with all this M2. The
alternative 1-2 i-ii could be in play right now don't you think so.
wish you the best.
markrivest
⋅
@samitrading,
US stocks are still rising and could continue for another month.
The rally this week broke above important resistance, I need more data before making a new forecast.
Netris101
⋅
🔥🔥🔥
Market_Manipulation
⋅
Another data point for you, BTC is usually a leading indicator of SPX.
UnknownUnicorn3811160
⋅
don't forget the gaint hanging man on the weekly..and weekly MACD is about to death ☠
poister198
⋅
Lets see! My bet is on an extended bullrun through May to 430 based on a very clear double bottom "W" just seen. Good confirmation today to add long positions!
your answer and analysis.