We pushed into the upper resistance line and are now slightly above it. The big question now is does the resistance line repel SPX or does SPX keep going to the next Fib target of 1906 and then this resistance line become support? I'll let the market decide but with the way things have been going for the last several months, I won't be surprised to see a push to 1906 before any meaningful pull back.
Comments
CurtisM
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biff, what I'm watching now is how fast the market moves back to recent highs, if in fact it even does so. Coming into Thursday's session the markets were about as stretched to the upside as is possible and in dire need of a cooling off period and I am expecting this cooling off period to last more than one day and maybe even more than one week. We'll see. I am especially watching SOX & TRAN as these have been very important drivers of this market and they both lost more than 1% on Thursday, 1.36%, and 1.52% respectively.
At the moment, I do not have any sell signals on my SPX charts , though it's close in the 60min time frame. IWM is in 'sell/avoid' mode but the RSI in the 60min time frame dropped below 30 on Thursday and then it bounced. If IWM continues to bounce and gets above 114.65, that will negate that signal.
I am watching a TRIN chart that I've set up and it gives some pretty decent signals. It has not gone to 'sell' yet, but may today. I'll let you know. It's now about 8:20AM ET and the ES is up 4.75pts and more than 10pts off the bottom. I'll be watching to see if the pro's come in and buy or sell near the cash open as that will certainly be telling. GL
biffdog
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Good Morning! After yesterday's action, I am seeing a little follow through as we are down 6.0 in spx500 futures. We will test that 20 day MA at 1810... what are your thoughts at this point>? I know you need to see the first couple weeks in January, as that action can be very predictive and give overall perspective, historically. But your observations and calculations can help me shave some sort term profits on my shorts. Also looking to buy some XIV again around 33ish... thank you again for your insight.
CurtisM
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biff, I am looking at stuff that says we are mega stretched to the upside compared with other rallies off the 09' lows.....but when I go back to 2003-2007 and compare data I see that we can get mega, mega stretched before we see any meaningful pull back. So I'm not sure which template is going to be the predictive one: 2003-2007 or 2009 to the present. I think we may have to wait until the end of the 2nd week of January for better clarity.
biffdog
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as always your analysis and information ALWAYS appreciated
biffdog
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wassup... for some reason could not access my Biff2010 account.. so biffdog will have to do. Test of 16000 in the books for Dow so that is where we are headed into january. Have to test back to Bband midline at least... then, ??? I play both sides of the fence... with satistical flows back to mid-line or an adjusted VWMA and play bounces... We will fade down, it may not be straight down, and so I snag both ways.
At the moment, I do not have any sell signals on my SPX charts , though it's close in the 60min time frame. IWM is in 'sell/avoid' mode but the RSI in the 60min time frame dropped below 30 on Thursday and then it bounced. If IWM continues to bounce and gets above 114.65, that will negate that signal.
I am watching a TRIN chart that I've set up and it gives some pretty decent signals. It has not gone to 'sell' yet, but may today. I'll let you know. It's now about 8:20AM ET and the ES is up 4.75pts and more than 10pts off the bottom. I'll be watching to see if the pro's come in and buy or sell near the cash open as that will certainly be telling. GL