In the beginning of the financial crisis in 2008, the S&P500 broke down below the MA 200 and fell -20.3% from the top to bottom in Mars 17th '08 before printing a rising wedge formation. The rising wedge took off and in conjunction with crossing the MA 200, price was quickly rejected and fell -54%. Today, after another long bull market, the S&P500 has once again broken down below the MA 200 with a fall of -20.3% and just like last time, we are yet again in the middle of a similar rising wedge formation heading towards the MA 200. The question is, will history repeat itself one more time?
History has a tendency to repeat itself, but the approach can be different. We see resemblance in these fractals but also dissimilatiries such as a quicker downfall followed by a more aggressive rising wedge. If you zoom in, you will also see that we're currently in a rising wedge within a rising channel and it is not certain price will break down, a continuation within the trending channel is also possible.
It is important to always stay flexible and not tie yourself to a specific scenario.
Perhaps we're in the rising wedge that was formed in the rebound of Jan 22 2008 to Feb 4 2008. That was the wedge formed during the initial rebound from the first big drop. It has a similar rapid rise as that one we're in now. The wedge you highlight came AFTER a retest of previous lows. We have not seen a retest of lows yet.