Unemployment in the U.S. and 13 states to watch out for
With the unemployment data being scheduled for release today, we would like to focus on this topic. Previously, we stated that historically, each 1% rise in unemployment within the United States was accompanied by a recession. Therefore, today, we want to highlight a few interesting trends in unemployment with regard to specific states rather than a whole country. Below, we list 13 states that stood out to us and which might be worth to be paying attention to (in the remaining 37 states, unemployment was either still declining or not showing any significant growth in the past year, although that does not mean that they are less worthy of watching out for).
Unemployment trends in particular states:
- District of Columbia - up from 3.9% in August 2022 to 5% in April 2023 (+1.1% increase).
- Oregon - This state saw unemployment rise from 3.5% in March 2022 to 4.8% in October 2022. Then the unemployment rate stayed unchanged until February 2023, when it started to tick down. In April 2023, the unemployment in Oregon stood at 4%.
- Kentucky - Unemployment in Kentucky rose from 3.3% in December 2022 to 4.6% in February 2023. Then, it quickly declined in the following two months, printing 3.2% in April 2023. Though, we would like to emphasize that changes in the unemployment rate in Kentucky are historically volatile, at least based on the FRED’s data.
- Wyoming - The unemployment rate was 3.2% in April 2022 and rose to 3.9% in October 2022. Then similarly, like in Kentucky, it stayed unchanged until February 2023. After that, the rate started to decline, reaching 3.5% in April 2023.
- New Jersey - In New Jersey, the unemployment rate stood at 2.8% in September 2022. In February 2023, this figure rose to 4.1% and then started to decline. In April 2023, unemployment was down to 3%.
- Virginia - The unemployment in Virginia was 2.5% in June 2022. In November 2022, it rose to 3.2%. Since then, the unemployment rate in the state remained between 3.1% and 3.2%.
- Kansas - In Kansas, unemployment rose from 2.4% in April 2022 to 3% in November 2022. After that, it continued to print 2.9% in the next five months.
- Minnesota - The unemployment in Minnesota rose from 2.3% in April 2022 to 3% in November 2023. In April 2022, it came in at 2.8%.
- Iowa - At the start of the second quarter of 2022, Iowa's unemployment rate was 2.3%. In September 2022, it reached 3.1%; later, in December 2022, it started declining. Unemployment in Iowa reached 2.7% at the start of the second quarter of 2023.
- Missouri - In June 2022, the unemployment rate in Missouri was trending at 2.1%. Then, in October 2022, it reached 2.7%, where it held until February 2023. In April 2023, this figure came in at 2.5%.
- Vermont - In Vermont, unemployment rose by 0.9% between April 2022 and October 2022. However, after that, it started to fall, hitting 2.4% in April 2023.
- New Hampshire - In April 2022, the unemployment rate in New Hampshire equaled 2.1%. In October 2022, it was already at 2.9%. However, it started to fall in January 2023 and erased the whole rise in April 2023.
- Nebraska - In April 2022, unemployment stood at 2% in Nebraska. After that, it started to rise, reaching 2.7% in December 2022. Despite this uptick, unemployment quickly fell to 2% by the end of April 2023.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Unemployment trends in particular states:
- District of Columbia - up from 3.9% in August 2022 to 5% in April 2023 (+1.1% increase).
- Oregon - This state saw unemployment rise from 3.5% in March 2022 to 4.8% in October 2022. Then the unemployment rate stayed unchanged until February 2023, when it started to tick down. In April 2023, the unemployment in Oregon stood at 4%.
- Kentucky - Unemployment in Kentucky rose from 3.3% in December 2022 to 4.6% in February 2023. Then, it quickly declined in the following two months, printing 3.2% in April 2023. Though, we would like to emphasize that changes in the unemployment rate in Kentucky are historically volatile, at least based on the FRED’s data.
- Wyoming - The unemployment rate was 3.2% in April 2022 and rose to 3.9% in October 2022. Then similarly, like in Kentucky, it stayed unchanged until February 2023. After that, the rate started to decline, reaching 3.5% in April 2023.
- New Jersey - In New Jersey, the unemployment rate stood at 2.8% in September 2022. In February 2023, this figure rose to 4.1% and then started to decline. In April 2023, unemployment was down to 3%.
- Virginia - The unemployment in Virginia was 2.5% in June 2022. In November 2022, it rose to 3.2%. Since then, the unemployment rate in the state remained between 3.1% and 3.2%.
- Kansas - In Kansas, unemployment rose from 2.4% in April 2022 to 3% in November 2022. After that, it continued to print 2.9% in the next five months.
- Minnesota - The unemployment in Minnesota rose from 2.3% in April 2022 to 3% in November 2023. In April 2022, it came in at 2.8%.
- Iowa - At the start of the second quarter of 2022, Iowa's unemployment rate was 2.3%. In September 2022, it reached 3.1%; later, in December 2022, it started declining. Unemployment in Iowa reached 2.7% at the start of the second quarter of 2023.
- Missouri - In June 2022, the unemployment rate in Missouri was trending at 2.1%. Then, in October 2022, it reached 2.7%, where it held until February 2023. In April 2023, this figure came in at 2.5%.
- Vermont - In Vermont, unemployment rose by 0.9% between April 2022 and October 2022. However, after that, it started to fall, hitting 2.4% in April 2023.
- New Hampshire - In April 2022, the unemployment rate in New Hampshire equaled 2.1%. In October 2022, it was already at 2.9%. However, it started to fall in January 2023 and erased the whole rise in April 2023.
- Nebraska - In April 2022, unemployment stood at 2% in Nebraska. After that, it started to rise, reaching 2.7% in December 2022. Despite this uptick, unemployment quickly fell to 2% by the end of April 2023.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
