BLUF: Normal wave pattern Up-Down-Up-Consolidate-Repeat, low liquidity markets with low volume unless precipitated by a Tweet or Bad news is Good news and Good News is Bad news!
Triggers toward Higher Highs (3000-3500): ivo Sep climb
1) G20 is a Non-Starter...Kibuki Theater with No-Real-Outcome, raise the BS Flag!
2) Fed Lowers FFR, maybe in July but more than likely in Sep if the Macro Data Supports it! Surprise Surprise...TBD!
3) Most Important...DEBT CEILING Raised with an agreed budget...Liquidity flows from government spending crank up, USD Squeeze flattens...Bond Spreads Increase and Gold Decrease ivo September, lets hope it does not become a Govy-Shutdown-Battle and the prolonging sends us into major correction territory...TBD!
We are led the the Faqawi Tribe!!! The DC Incompetents!!! But if the incompetents do win out and we get a major correction,,,just another great buying opportunity...keep a reserve!
Its all a SWAG...Good Luck, have a great summer...I am!!
Triggers toward Higher Highs (3000-3500): ivo Sep climb
1) G20 is a Non-Starter...Kibuki Theater with No-Real-Outcome, raise the BS Flag!
2) Fed Lowers FFR, maybe in July but more than likely in Sep if the Macro Data Supports it! Surprise Surprise...TBD!
3) Most Important...DEBT CEILING Raised with an agreed budget...Liquidity flows from government spending crank up, USD Squeeze flattens...Bond Spreads Increase and Gold Decrease ivo September, lets hope it does not become a Govy-Shutdown-Battle and the prolonging sends us into major correction territory...TBD!
We are led the the Faqawi Tribe!!! The DC Incompetents!!! But if the incompetents do win out and we get a major correction,,,just another great buying opportunity...keep a reserve!
Its all a SWAG...Good Luck, have a great summer...I am!!
Comment:
Strip out the noise, and the market picture hasn’t really changed. Everyone is trying to arbitrage ultra-low rates. That’s why folk are buying bonds – they expect lower-for-longer and ease from the ECB and FED. That’s why people are buying stocks – they expect a demand boost from lower rates fueling a further round of corporate buybacks and more yield tourist money. --Bill Blain's Morning Porridge
Just follow the money...illiquidity will get you every time, What if? What is the High-Ground Trade? TBD! Who will fade first?
Just follow the money...illiquidity will get you every time, What if? What is the High-Ground Trade? TBD! Who will fade first?
Comment:
St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard said on Tuesday he does not think the U.S. central bank needs to cut interest rates by a half point at its next meeting in July, even though he felt the Fed should have lowered rates last week.
"Just sitting here today, I think 50 basis points would be overdone," Bullard said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. "I don't think the situation really calls for that, but I would be willing to go 25 (basis points)."
LOL!!!
"Just sitting here today, I think 50 basis points would be overdone," Bullard said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. "I don't think the situation really calls for that, but I would be willing to go 25 (basis points)."
LOL!!!
Comment:
Hmmmm....Surprise Surprise...TBD!
Todays Speech:
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stressed the central bank's "independence" in a speech Tuesday.
His warning about policy caving to "short-term political interests" comes amid intense pressure from President Donald Trump to cut interest rates.
He also stressed the importance of policies that will "sustain the expansion."
Following the speech, Powell was scheduled to participate in a question and answer session that comes at a critical time for the Fed.
Todays Speech:
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stressed the central bank's "independence" in a speech Tuesday.
His warning about policy caving to "short-term political interests" comes amid intense pressure from President Donald Trump to cut interest rates.
He also stressed the importance of policies that will "sustain the expansion."
Following the speech, Powell was scheduled to participate in a question and answer session that comes at a critical time for the Fed.
Comment:
In what appears to be an exercise in expectations management, White House officials are talking to Reuters to set the table for this weekend's meeting between Trump and Xi at the G-20.
*TRUMP, XI WILL MEET SATURDAY IN JAPAN, OFFICIAL TELLS REUTERS
*U.S. GOAL FOR G-20 MEETING TO REOPEN CHINA TRADE TALKS: REUTERS
Officials set the tone:
*SENIOR ADMIN. OFFICIAL SAYS U.S. WON'T ACCEPT TARIFF CONDITIONS
*U.S.-CHINA MAY AGREE ON NO NEW TARIFFS AS GOODWILL: REUTERS
Finally, and most notably, Reuters notes:
*NO DEAL EXPECTED AT G-20, SENIOR ADMIN. OFFICIAL SAYS
*U.S. DOESN'T EXPECT BROAD TRADE DEAL AFTER G20 MEETING: REUTERS
*CHINA TALKS MAY PERSIST FOR MONTHS, YRS, OFFICIAL TELLS REUTERS
Yes Sir, we are led by the Faqawi Tribe! Pure Comedy!....Triggers being pulled!
*TRUMP, XI WILL MEET SATURDAY IN JAPAN, OFFICIAL TELLS REUTERS
*U.S. GOAL FOR G-20 MEETING TO REOPEN CHINA TRADE TALKS: REUTERS
Officials set the tone:
*SENIOR ADMIN. OFFICIAL SAYS U.S. WON'T ACCEPT TARIFF CONDITIONS
*U.S.-CHINA MAY AGREE ON NO NEW TARIFFS AS GOODWILL: REUTERS
Finally, and most notably, Reuters notes:
*NO DEAL EXPECTED AT G-20, SENIOR ADMIN. OFFICIAL SAYS
*U.S. DOESN'T EXPECT BROAD TRADE DEAL AFTER G20 MEETING: REUTERS
*CHINA TALKS MAY PERSIST FOR MONTHS, YRS, OFFICIAL TELLS REUTERS
Yes Sir, we are led by the Faqawi Tribe! Pure Comedy!....Triggers being pulled!
Remember – Hope is never a Strategy!