Technician
Short

SP500: Time to Short Stocks.. Once More...

INDEX:SPX   S&P 500 Index
4267 174 34
The current market positioning seems pretty vulnerable, where after a 5-years bull market, serious technical warning signals have been persistent             within the past year. So a short seems an attractive call just slightly higher, as the reward compared to risk is high.

I have discussed in my earlier posts some of these signals, such as market breadth deterioration, add to that the bearish breakout in high yield corporate bonds shown on chart, note that HYC bonds have been diverging failing to confirm the upside in equities for more than a year now.(HYCB and equities have been positively correlated).

Another behavior that evolved recently is the out performance of consumer staples             sector compared to consumer discretionary, within the past 20 years, tops were preceded by such behavior(which is logical as defensive sectors are more appealing to investors in risk-aversion environment).
If we get a move higher following the FOMC meeting, i will be looking to short near 2035.
If you want to read more about these technical deterioration signals, please check the related links below

Guys, lets make a small sentiment survey here, if you're bearish just comment "Bearish", if you're bullish comment "Bullish".. for the coming few months ..I think we could ask the question in different way, do you think the latest high is the top for for the coming six months, or no? ..... Thank you

Best of luck. Join me at https://twitter.com/thefxchannel
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My best regards,
Technician

==================================================================
Trading Criteria:
1. Trades are taken in two units
2. First unit would be closed at first target
3. Stop loss is then moved to break-even
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Notes:
5) If 90 percent of first target is reached I move stop loss to breakeven.
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Skype: Technician - The forex channel
why would you go against the market if it goes up to 2040 tomorrow?
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I removed "tomorrow" word... so just following the FOMC ... and lets make 2035..
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Janet Yellen will save the world.
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ShaunP charlie.delta.trader
look at Russia surely there must be warning signs of unceartainty in every traders mind? Yellen wont change her stance, next year interst rates are rising even if just incramental. If the wording gets changed we have a bounce, but it wont be enough. The world's economies are all slowing and is evident by the falling in comodity prices and SPX will be draged down too. I think Santa Claus rally this year is unlikly this year.
+1 Reply
One more indeed. Not sure about shorting stocks any time before white house is burning or FED is abolished by Rand Paul
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SANTA (aka SATAN) is coming to town...
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Guys, lets make a small sentiment survey here, if you're bearish just comment "Bearish", if you're bullish comment "Bullish".. Thank you
+1 Reply
aziz92 Technician
What timeframe? short term? daily? weekly? monthly?
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SS96 PRO Technician
short / mid term or long term?
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Long term we are all going to die, earth included. Stocks are going to disappear, so technically everything is going to 0 on a long enough time frame. Any forecast can be correct...just change the time frame :)
+3 Reply
:D
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Lol. That's why I keep my stops tight.
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Technician TOP Technician
Lets say from now to the coming 6 months. (medium to long term)
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SS96 PRO Technician
it depends on how next 4-6 weeks develop :)
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timwest PRO Technician
I'd like to see TradingView ask each time we log in to TradingView. That way the survey would cover more people.
+5 Reply
..and to get that as a sentiment indicator!
+3 Reply
LudmilaHanania Technician
Bearish long term , short term manipulated market is hard to predict.
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aziz92 Technician
Bullish mid-long term. No reason to think counter trend without any solid evidence.
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mmm, solid evidence? such as? This point is pretty subjective
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timwest PRO Technician
Bullish on bearish :-)
+1 Reply
haha, agree :D
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2use timwest
bearish as well. I wish i could make money of the bear markets, but i sit those out
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Bearish.
Though I went short way too early. I bought SPY151219P00130000 back in May. I improved my signals and went short again on 17/Nov with DIA150117P00170000. Yesterdays close put me slightly in front across both trades. Watching the Fed today in case crude's deflationary pressure will change Yellen's language.
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harryhope PRO Technician
Bearish.
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This week bearish. Next week -neutral.
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I think we could ask the question in different way, do you think the latest high is the top for for the coming six months, or no?
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Actually, I would say bearish. No one can save the market, if it want to be a bear. Yellen can do nothing but create a short point. :)
+1 Reply
Agree
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I go where i think the market will pivot or bounce. Bearish or bullish, whatever.
+1 Reply
Bearish
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There's no trade here. Only a gamble. Too late to short. Too risky to long when markets don't know what they are doing. Stocks could very well diverge and move up while oil sinks to 43.

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Well, if you see no trade, doesn't mean there is no trade, it depends on every trader's analysis framework. IMO, forecasting short to medium term moves on fundamentals is nearly impossible, you usually get fundamental analysts explaining why the move happened after it happens. Fundamentals are best used on long term market projections( more than a year).
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Bearish...one more leg up...not to new high...then the big sell
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OK...OK... Bullish. Not coz of Santa but Saudi. If the US & NATO wanna punish Putin & pressure Iran.... And the Saudis want to take out shale oil producers to keep their market cap. Where is the trade off?? America has said yes to a hostile re- takeover of their own oil (''independence'') production. Desert kingdom stock markets are tanking. They can stay in cash for the next 50 years but their reactionary regimes need US protection. The trade off is money will flow back to the USA.
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Look at this Ichi Moku
snapshot

If the S&P doesn't bounce from here I'll stop eating sushi!

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Hahaha
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that's a huge bet...
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YaKa PRO HexVex
Genuine Question: did it not break through the same cloud in October?
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On another note.. Calling a top on a stock is mighty different from an index. Nasdaq was at 1560 when I started. People talked all day about Greenspan's 2.50 rate to keep everything afloat and 2000 being a castle in the sky. Apple was 14 bucks and no one cared about it. The money liked Oracle. Anyone heard of Oracle?
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I'm bearish but the only way to catch the south run is to have a very precise entries at the swap zones with a very tight sl..... I will look for short entries at the swap zones with sl of less than 15points....
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top is forming. but hard to say when it is going to collapse.
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I think the 1700s would be tested before making a new high.
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YaKa PRO HamedAghajani
agree...
Tested over many months actually.
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BEARISH
Against all December Stats and in break of market dynamics since 2 years (not an easy call and I may be wrong for the next few weeks but can't see SP500 higher than 2110 in Jan15 or 2200 in June)
Your idea about the survey is great. It would be a great tool.
There is a tool that I would have liked to develop: "the fast money" survey, I noticed: when everyone agrees on CNBC: it is wrong.
I think What people do is more important than what they think or say which may be different at different point of the day.
I know some guys who are constantly long and constantly negative about the outcome... Maybe a way to hedge the potential loss intellectually... Vast subject:)
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Sure, i think u r right... as tradingview will soon implement the new "Trading" Feature, we will be able to do that on real market positions, which will give us more of that sentiment stats..
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YaKa PRO Technician
Are they adding trading feature with track record and so on?
It would be great to have options in here then to make it complete and reflect what you could really do in a real book.
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Yes all is coming to tradingview, it will be the most comprehensive online trading platform ever.
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Technician TOP Technician
Actually trading is coming very very soon, its in beta testing now..
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YaKa PRO Technician
connected to a broker as well?
I dreamt about it, are they doing my biz plan?:)
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:) , yes we could connect it to brokers, so i think its a huge move for tradingview.
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jangseohee Technician
i need a quarterly and yearly candle feature :-)
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Technician TOP jangseohee
This feature is available for pro users..
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jangseohee Technician
ic, so far NONE of the pro posted it what a waste!
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To all: Have a safe trading day!
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Thanks Mickette, have a great one
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Hi Technician, maybe the survey could be made automatically by looking at what is posted in different time frames and recording the LONG, NEUTRAL, SHORT in each time frame?
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Yes i think that could be done as well. Great input, thanks
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SP500 Futures outlook: Little AB-CD on its way up to 1978.57
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Mr Market has "blackmailed" Mdm Y about the consequences of even hinting raising rates
QQQ, is this blackmailing?
+1 Reply
Mickette jangseohee
;-) I like the comment
+1 Reply
chartmojo PRO jangseohee
take it back another 5 , 10 or 15 years....
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jangseohee chartmojo
no space
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bearish
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bearish until the DXY-us dollar backs off. New high again this morning with CL in a continual spiral
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Technician TOP paulyberndt
crude oil is back under pressure , will equities follow
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Mickette Technician
snapshot
+1 Reply
jangseohee Mickette
Mixed relationship between Crude Oil & SPX
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jangseohee jangseohee
Posted 21 days ago
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Slightly earlier than i expected
SPX, Megaphone 2014
+1 Reply
FOMC in few hours, get ready for the fireworks mates.. I think its going to be crucial to markets today
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What are the tecnichal indicators using to make the conclusion of a Bearish market?
If we are looking at the monthly chart we are trying to see a long term prediction. To interpret at the monthly chart be cautious about the last candlestick as the month is not over yet. This candlestick can change a lot during the next two weeks. See the october candle. Everyone was talking then about a bearish market. And see what happened.
One way to see the trend at the monthly chart is to use SMA 12. If the candlestick is closing over the SMA 12 the market is bullish. And if it closes below it is a bear market. If you want to be sure the trend has changed have two consecetive candles closing above or under SMA 12.
So my conclusion at this point by looking at the monthly chart there is no sign yet for a bearish market as the candle is above SMA 12. SMA 12 is at 1932 today. But if the the december month candle will close under SMA 12 (1932) I will get bearish on longterm. And especially if the January month candle will do it too.
+1 Reply
Technician TOP StefanAkteus
Yeah the trend is clearly bullish, but it should correct at some point
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StefanAkteus Technician
Absolutely it will come . But will it come now, in a month or 6 months? For me I do not see that confirmed at the monthly chart. Of course we are in a correction short term on the daily chart.
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Very short time=>bullish
Longer term=> bearish

+1 Reply
QE in ECB Europe will start in January, 2015.
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jeremyb charlie.delta.trader
US market doesn't care of QE in EUrope. USA is the king of the world. Europe ahah laughing on it.
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Market are already up close to 1%. Dead cat bounce?
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who knows
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Will Wong Technician
Now market up almost 2% but seems to be meeting headwinds. The close will be quite interesting.
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Wish I could have saw this post yesterday because now my response seems a little late. But no the latest high is not the top imho. We will make a new high going into the 1st quarter of 2015.
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Technician TOP Ghostrider7
Not late at all
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Hi technician, I see 1525 take profit en 2015 (fibonacci).
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Guys, I see a krach on SP500 in March\April 2015.. based on "fibonacci time" tool, it's perfect.
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Why is this place so quiet after the FOMC induced rally? Are you guys just as depressed as me?
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jangseohee Will Wong
Knowing that Christmas Rally is imminent with "Patience" word from Mdm Y, close up earlier some of my short position, hence less happier :-)
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What would happen when XLY/XLP low is taken out?

On a monthly chart, prior low has to be taken out for real bears
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Look at my chart about the SELL OFF IN 2015 : FIBONACCI TIME ZONE CONFIRMS :
2015 : PREPARE FOR A KRACH ON SP500.... Objective : 1525 or more
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2015 : PREPARE FOR A KRACH ON SP500.... Objective : 1525 or more
LOOK AT THIS SELL OFF 2015 CHART
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The price pulled back to 2040 level. I am in. Thanks. Where can I find the patience to watch the trade :)
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Technician TOP HamedAghajani
Feeling worried, good luck
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Why do you feel worried?
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Technician TOP HamedAghajani
well, just because you have took the trade as well...
+1 Reply
gunne821 Technician
Technician, you should not be worried about that...I think most (if not all) of us are thankful for your continued ideas and analysis. Whether or not we go along, that's entirely up to us.
+1 Reply
Really appreciate it gunne, thanks for that
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jangseohee Technician
what is there to worry, Mdm Y has RE-AFFIRMed of Christmas Rally til 31 Dec at the minimum :-)
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Technician TOP jangseohee
Good, hopefully this is not the case this time
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YaKa PRO Technician
If there is a hooking point for shorts, NOW it is:
1 - Pull back against Logarithmic Trendline taking bottoms of oct11 and Jun12
2 - Pull back against Logarithmic Trendline taking bottoms of Jun13, Oct13, Feb14, Apr14, Aug14.
3 - 61.8% Retracement of the whole move down
4 - Close to Monthly Pivot at 2048.

+ There is HARD resistance at 2090 and the market is moving 40pts a day.... something does not add up.
+ The realised volatility increasing in a narrowing cone is telling something is cooking (Regardless of whether the short works here, the future outcome is likely to be some large correction).

snapshot
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Yes, i am still bearish
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Technician TOP Technician
lets see how breadth indicators will react to this rally
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jangseohee Technician
if it closed as a weekly DOJI...
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For those who wants to have more confirmation, better wait for a bearish candlestick formation
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Technician TOP jangseohee
Another good suggetsion
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jeremyb Technician
do you maintain your trade now?
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jangseohee jeremyb
any bearish candlestick pattern between 17379.84 - 17607.44 would be add on of shorts for me
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jeremyb jangseohee
??
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jangseohee jeremyb
this range is a no man's land for me
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Yes, am short
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Dec.22 Warning! Achtung! ES1

snapshot
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No yet Technician thanks to Yellen... Santa Klaus is coming to town first... When this rally ends then yes i will get a short position. Expect new all time highs.
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you are wrong technician this is the christmas rally
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No issues if am right or wrong, i don't care about the outcome, i care emphasize on the process. Am applying my views to trade, and that's what only required..
+1 Reply
Technician TOP Technician
That's what only matters over the long run for a trader to be successful..
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YaKa PRO Technician
Absolutely agree.
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YaKa PRO jeremyb
I read a lot of definitive statements.

Do you know the difference between: I Know, I think, I feel?...

Most of the time (not to say always with the market), we dont know but we construct a game that is relatively well backed. And often 2 opposite stories co exist (true in all midfield pivots)...

Same thing goes with I am right/wrong... There are good reasoning which work or not.... SO: "You are right, You are wrong" as definitive statements are a bit out of place. "I disagree" maybe, just a suggestion.

The market does not care what we think. Time will tell and here we will know in a few days.
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Totally agree yacine, this is what i believe the biggest mistake traders do probably due to the lack of understanding of the trading environment, there is no right or wrong answers or even proofs in the markets, its all about the process you take to validate a trade. Thank you for stressing on this point..
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YaKa PRO Technician
I find it fascinating and markets are a very interesting field to study psychology and convictions.
It made me realise that convictions are amost a chemical reaction and that different brains with different physiology/cultural/technical background could reach different conclusions...

The very different thing about trading is that unlike other strong beliefs (religious or others), it gives you the opportunity to discover that what you thought was impossible can happen...

Vast subject... Loads of psychology involved in here
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Proving other wrong doesn't make me right either
We have a Oct Month hanging man... 1st sign of bearishness, As Chris Perruna puts it, topping takes time
+1 Reply
YaKa PRO jangseohee
Jang, I agree with you. It can take a hell of a lot of time. It is subjective but I consider the topping process started in June14
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June month was a Negative candle, you could be right
The topping "process" have more frequent red monthly candle emerging than in a healthy uptrend :-)
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This is such an amazing explanation/observation.. I would add to that, the instantaneous mental state plays a major role when trading.
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jangseohee Technician
what observation?
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Mickette Technician
BACK ON TRACK. Pullback to 2027 still possible.
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Hello Mickette :)
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Mickette Technician
Hello :-)
I never look back. I keep moving on...
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:). that's pretty strong
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Mickette Technician
No time for "bla bla bla" and nostalgia ;-)
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I am excited to see how this plays out.
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YaKa PRO Technician
absolutely: i place that in "background", it could be deeply rooted or just because the very last emotional event. Be it positive or negative.
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Clearly here: what I know is the market moves 40pts every day...
It could reach 2100 in 1.5 days.
It could reach 1900 in 4days.
Do I know for sure the side? NO. Absolutely not. Nobody knows.
Do I think that 2120 can be broken until end of january: NO. I have good tools that suggest no but it is not impossible. I strongly think not but I DONT KNOW.
Do I have an instinct, a feeling, a desire, a vision? YES.
Do I have a game plan with clear metrics. YES stop on close above 2055.
+1 Reply
Well, this is what need, a thorough framework of the process.
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Technician TOP Technician
I wouldn't discuss the details, as every trader may have a totally different process
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DJTA price making a first attempt to kiss the underside of daily H&S neckline...
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Unless NYA can break 11108.3 by 31 Dec, else it is an evening star for 4Q
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Technician TOP jangseohee
I am excited to see how today will close
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jangseohee Technician
all 5 indices closed below 8ema, but still up... to confuse dump money :-)
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Technician TOP jangseohee
I have a feeling that this will reverse sharply
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jangseohee Technician
i though tomorrow
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Technician TOP jangseohee
who knows, just a feeling
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rudius Technician
well, i m in at 2040. We already had a big reverse in october, i don t see it again for christmas ;)
Adding, that everybody is up and vix is still high, my view is bearish.
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:D, obviously we stand at the same side
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jangseohee Technician
RUssell and NYA are the two laggers..
RUssell has been flat since Dec 2013 and now still spinning top at 1180
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Technician TOP jangseohee
Lagging Russel is not a good sign as well
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jangseohee Technician
You won't be surprise to see that on a daily chart currently, DJIA price is testing the Mega Fake out support turned resistance!
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Technician TOP jangseohee
can u post a chart
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jangseohee Technician
which one? Mega fake out resistance test or RUT 2009 resistance test?
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Technician TOP jangseohee
yes
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jangseohee Technician
sorry, for DOWI in TV, i gotta wait until market close for that extra daily candle to appear, the same for Mussell 2000, need another about 12 hours, but my thinkorswim can see it LIVE
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jangseohee Technician
if you can post earlier than me, by all means, for DOWI, connect the highest of 16 July to the highest of shooting star of 19 Sept and extend it longer.. this one on daily chart
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jangseohee Technician
another disturbing observation, almost the entire planets country ETF have either broke uptrendline support or about to do so... unless the BULL has got a injection of Steroid. else good luck to the BULLs
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jangseohee Technician
As promised
DOWT, closed above neckline
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jangseohee Technician
as promised for RUT
IUX, Russell attempted to break my triple resistances
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jangseohee Technician
more exciting, RUT is now testing the underside resistance trendline from 2009!
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Technician TOP jangseohee
in general when u point to technical developments please post a chart so it can be clear
+1 Reply
jangseohee Technician
sure
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VIX VERY INTERESTING HERE
VIX - Second Contract - A buy here?
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NEW TOP - NEW HIGH in 2015, "c'est la vie" with QE in Europe in 2015 :)

snapshot
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bearish my spy target is 1875 internals are weak. oil demand weak gold is rising since feds ammunition is ease and wait first plunge was us and Europe now russia next will be china
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Stressful here to bear the risk in futures as the bulls may have it right.

Cheap Leverage can get acquired cheaply if you hold the view it wont hold:

26 dec 2014:
Put spread 2000/1950
Value 3.30
It could be worth 50 max end of next week if santa claus week is not as expected.
Cheap way to play it even if wrong knowing that 3.3 is what you make or lose every 5 minute on the future.
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im in too
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FWIW, I am playing this upswing in the market but my fingers are nimble and quick to bail out. Jack be nimble, Jack be quick!
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it was still smooth sailing 3 months ago until it broke
Consolidation about to end!
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We're still in a bull market, you know? So bullish.
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Bearish, preparing hedge
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Looks like it will be a roller coaster. Lets start again, who thinks this will reach target(Agree with the trade), or disagree with the trade? Appreciate ur input
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jangseohee Technician
agree but takes time
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Technician TOP jangseohee
Yeah usually topping formation takes months to evolve...
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YaKa PRO Technician
i think (strongly) that it will fall. question of weeks now. risk jump to 2080/2130 (just a risk)
+1 Reply
I'm Bearish
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bearish for longterm
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vila yangyaoj
Target : 1891
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Really hard to tell right now, critical days coming up...If Draghi comes up with something special and pleases the market, we might see a push up again globally.
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Bearish
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