SP500 reached an important zone. Whether it breaks through the resistance (old ATH at 2939) and with this causing that my EW-theory is false - or it rebounds within the red zone and enters the new corrective wave C.
Fundamentally the US-american economy seems to be strong enough, but on the other hand one has to expect a tightening money policy. Much of the gains in the last years have been caused by cheap fiat money. So from the fundamental side we can find both: positive and negative implications.
Indicators RSI and MACD clearly in positive terrain (weekly). On daily basis MACD has just triggered the signal line from up to down; RSI still bullish, but going to the side.
So what´s also possible is, that we´ll see a smaller correction (within the green trend channel) and then making a new (and last) move up. Arguments for this possiblity are the EMA 50, just entering the trend channel, the volume (going back , but not crashing) and the indicators (see above).
No I don't agree. In my opinion this is a five upwards move that wants the 3000/3040 area. I don't believe it's a B - there are simply not enough overlapping waves for it to be a three.
So this is either wave 5 or a five wave C to finish a large expanded flat. My preference is for the flat in the form A, ABC (C being the current wave) followed by a last C wave decline to finish wave 4 of 5. If so, the market will top out in the 3000/3040 area and then fall in C as five waves. If C=A the target area is 2650 followed by an unexpected final 5th wave to the 3240 area.
So this is either wave 5 or a five wave C to finish a large expanded flat. My preference is for the flat in the form A, ABC (C being the current wave) followed by a last C wave decline to finish wave 4 of 5. If so, the market will top out in the 3000/3040 area and then fall in C as five waves. If C=A the target area is 2650 followed by an unexpected final 5th wave to the 3240 area.